Back for the First Time

After a long absence of not documenting my picks I am back. I still have retained some profit for the betting season, one week I'm hot up $2000 in 2 days and down $2000 in 2 days. Much like being on tilt, I let my head get inflated when I'm up and start chasing teasers and parlays that are really not good percentage plays. So after last weekends fiasco down $2250 Saturday and Sunday including a NFL 12 team teaser where New England was the only game I didn't hit, I am back with a head full of sense and vengeance looking for the best values out there for me and you. I am going to start with a fresh slate of 0-0 and with no profit. The goal here is to hit about 67% of my games, although that is not necessary for a profit if good money management comes into play. During my short time as a handicapper I have realized a few things and those ideals have become my mantra for betting.

Don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
Don't chase losses.
Good money management is key.

Alright enough with the chitchat lets get on to tonight!

YTD - 0-0

This year the stories in basketball and football are all about conferences. In the NFL it's obvious the AFC is the dominant conference with possibly 3 or 4 Super Bowl contenders while the NFC may have a hope in Chicago if Rex Grossman doesn't turn the ball over too much. In the NBA it is much the same, in the Western conference it looks like 6 teams could contend for the title, if they don't beat on each other too much in the playoffs. The same cannot be said for the sad sad Eastern conference, Orlando leads the conference in wins although they are starting to slump a little and are a young team. No team in the East looks like a standout although I believe Miami will start to get a little better and when Shaq comes back he will make them a contender.

This prelude leads me into tonight's games, there really isn't too much on the table, 1 NFL and 3 NBA and I haven't really seen enough college basketball yet this season to make accurate and informed picks (although if Pitt is ever a 20 point favorite or more, bet against them). So far, I have one pick tonight and here it is.

The Pick:
San Antonio -7 (-110)
100.00/90.91

Both teams are coming off wins from their last games, New Orleans beat a slumping and very disappointing Cleveland team while San Antonio beat Minnesota, again the conferences come into play as the East is obviously the weaker the conference when a mid level team from the West can go into your home (Clev.) and beat you. San Antonio is 5-1 SU and ATS in their last 6 including a point differential of around 15 pts a game. New Orleans on the other hand is 2-3 SU in its last 5, compiling a 2-2-1 ATS record in the same span.
While it does concern me the Spurs are playing a B2B which they have a horrible record in ATS the last few years, New Orleans will not be able to match up the whole game. With the injuries of Peja Stojakovic, David West and Bobby Jackson New Orleans is hard pressed when it comes to scoring and Chris Paul will not be able to drop 30 every night, especially tonight when he has to run around chasing Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili. New Orleans only goes 2 or 3 deep with 1 guard coming off the bench and 2 relatively inexperienced forwards who don't score many points to begin with. Conversely, San Antonio usually goes at least 4 deep on their bench including scorers Michael Finley and Brent Barry( who is shooting at about a 55% clip from 3). The bench of San Antonio will help combat their fatigue from a B2B and propel them to a win.

Stats to ponder:
Last 5
San Antonio defensive 3 pt FG % - 32.4
San Antonio offensive 3 pt FG % - 45.7%
New Orleans FT% - 65.4%

Prediction: San Antonio 101 - New Orleans 90

UPDATE: 8:27 PM

The Pick:
Golden State -4.5
100.00/95.20

I look at this game tonight as a potential runaway for Golden State. Golden State is coming off a win against Sacramento at home and are 10-5 at home ATS this year. More importantly is the fact that Tracy McGrady is out tonight for the Rockets. Without McGrady, Yao is going to be double teamed alot more in the post and will have to depend on Rafer Alston, Luther Head and Shane Battier to compensate for the scoring punch that TMac usually brings. Yao will also have trouble against the Warriors because of the breakneck pace that they employ. In fact with the pace that Golden State employs they average about 7 more possessions per game than Houston while also shooting a better percentage at the same time. Van Gundy will try to have his Houston team dictate pace in order to keep the scoring down, this will be quite a task considering Golden State averages an absurd 108 pts at home. Although it is not mentioned too much Golden State's defensive FG% at home isn't really that bad (43.9%) its just that because of the pace they play at alot of points are scored. Because Golden State is at home, TMac is out and the fact some Warriors players might be playing hard because of the Allen Iverson rumors the Warriors take this one easily tonight.

Stats to ponder:
12/5/06 - Golden State at Houston - Tracy McGrady 31 pts
Golden State - ranked top 10 in both FG% (4th) and 3 pt FG% (6th)
Houston - ranked #1 in NBA defensive FG%

Prediction: Golden State 102 - Houston 89