YTD:2-1 (.667)
ATS:2-0
Moneyline:0-1
Money:+310
Well, it is finally upon us, after thousands of preseason predictions,hundreds of camp confidential articles and one federal indictment the NFL regular season is going to begin. Like many red blooded males around the country (albeit a small eyed black haired one) I can not wait until 8:30 PM tonight. Good thing the NFL is all about money and exposure because we have a good one tonight.
Both the Colts and the Saints come into the season as Super Bowl contenders, however I believe that the Saints have the easier road. Looking at both teams there are some issues surrounding them and these issues will be points of emphasis for tonight's matchup
The Colts
Positives:
1. Peyton Manning is still their quarterback. Whatever has been said about Manning before, you can throw out the window, he dis spelled all his critics last year and got the monkey off his back known as New England
2. Joseph Addai. Addai came in as a rookie last season to be a complement to Dominic Rhodes, it became very apparent as the season wore on that Addai was Indy's best back. Addai is a good tough nosed runner and has excelled at the stretch play the Colt's run so often. Addai also has good hands and can be a serviceable receiving option of the backfield when called upon.
Negatives:
1. Defense. Say what you want about Bob Sanders (he's a ball of energy, a good tackler and the leader of the secondary) but he can't make every tackle for the Colts tonight. It was no secret last year that the Colts run defense was abhorrent. This season they don't look to get much better, especially with the injury of run stopping stalwart Booger McFarland.
2. Depth. I worry about the depth the Colts have, Addai currently is the only back on their roster that has any experience. Which poses the question, what about third down? Also because the injury to McFarland they are thin up front at DT.
The Saints
Positives:
1. Offense. You would be hard pressed to find an offensive as explosive as the Colts, well the Saints might be one of the few teams in the land to boast the offensive personnel that could trump the Colts. Sean Payton has shown to be a master at exploiting matchups and Reggie Bush is only going to get better in year 2.
2. Hunger. Unlike the Colts, the Saints suffered a heartbreaking loss in the NFC championship game. I believe Payton is a good motivator and will have his team ready.
Negatives:
1. Secondary. Much like last season the Saints secondary isn't its strongest unit on the field. They did make some additions to that unit in Jason David (CB) and Kevin Kaesviharn (S). The Saints still have some mismatches when it comes to CB- WR coverage and while Kaesviharn is a decent player, he's not a safety that you would expect to anchor a secondary.
2. Expectations. The Saints were just happy to be playing football last season after Katrina and ended up being "America's team" (Sorry Cowboys). They came into the season with low expectations and ended up surprising every one with their run to the NFC title game. This season the script has been flipped and New Orleans is one of the few teams in the NFC making a Super Bowl run. How they handle the expectations of being favorites can contribute to their play on the field or their preparation off the field.
The Lines opened at NO + 6.5 and O/U at 52
I feel pretty comfortable with the spread and I believe that New Orleans can win straight up (ML +220). Looking at the O/U, I am a little hesistant. It is the first game of the season and offenses usually do take a bit of time to get into sync, also I believe the best way for the Saints to win on the road would be to give the Colts D a steady helping of McAllister on the inside and Bush on the outside or with screens. This not only takes away the crowd and eats up the clock but it also forces Indy to bring 8 into the box if NO establishes the run well enough. If Sanders is forced into the box then Indy has some problems.
My Pick: 2 team teaser
NO +12.5
O/U 46 (over)
150.00/137.00
*EDIT*
10 pt teaser
NO +16
Oregon State +7
Louisville -31
200.00/167.00
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Tennis Tuesdays!
YTD:2-0
ATS:2-0
Money:+360
After a great start to the college football season, I am betting on tennis. I know I know, my manifesto hasn't really held true but look at tonight's match I just feel there is too much value to pass up. Tennis and soccer are two exotics that a lot of people stay away from because of sport knowledge, however both of these sports exhibit many money making lines that can be taken advantage of by cappers. It remains true that someone like Federer is going to command ridiculous moneylines in early as well as later rounds. Later rounds for most players is where you start to find some value.
Tonight in New York, American Serena Williams faces off against Belgian Justine Henin. Both are familiar with each other's games and Henin actually holds a 2-1 advantage in matches they've played so far this year. Henin's wins came on the clay at Roland Garros and the grass at Wimbledon while Serena took their one hard court match. Henin is accustomed to Serena's strong serve game, however I believe Serena will have the advantage of not only playing on a hard court but playing underneath the lights at Arthur Ashe. I believe that Serena's ML value here is good. It enticed me and I made a small play.
Serena Williams (+200 ML) 50.00/100.00
ATS:2-0
Money:+360
After a great start to the college football season, I am betting on tennis. I know I know, my manifesto hasn't really held true but look at tonight's match I just feel there is too much value to pass up. Tennis and soccer are two exotics that a lot of people stay away from because of sport knowledge, however both of these sports exhibit many money making lines that can be taken advantage of by cappers. It remains true that someone like Federer is going to command ridiculous moneylines in early as well as later rounds. Later rounds for most players is where you start to find some value.
Tonight in New York, American Serena Williams faces off against Belgian Justine Henin. Both are familiar with each other's games and Henin actually holds a 2-1 advantage in matches they've played so far this year. Henin's wins came on the clay at Roland Garros and the grass at Wimbledon while Serena took their one hard court match. Henin is accustomed to Serena's strong serve game, however I believe Serena will have the advantage of not only playing on a hard court but playing underneath the lights at Arthur Ashe. I believe that Serena's ML value here is good. It enticed me and I made a small play.
Serena Williams (+200 ML) 50.00/100.00
Monday, September 03, 2007
Monday Night ACC
YTD: 1-0
ATS: 1-0
Money:+270
The college football season has kicked off and we're off and running. Tonight we have an ACC match up that has become much more than a family rivalry but a legit match up between hopeful ACC contenders. During the off season the word at Florida State was that changes were happening, Bobby shook up the coaching staff and the offense is promised to be more formidable than the past few years. While change was needed in Tallahassee, one has to wonder if that change will bring immediate results. FSU's personnel hasn't changed drastically since last season and in terms of their stout defense they lost two leaders in linebackers Lawrence Timmons and Buster Davis. Clemson came out firing last season and eventually faded down the stretch but they have a legit twosome in their backfield. Tonight Clemson are home dogs although they have won 3 out of the past 4. The home team has gone 8-1 ATS the past 9 meetings. Tonight I am going small with the Clemson Tigers.
Clemson +4 100.00/90.00
ATS: 1-0
Money:+270
The college football season has kicked off and we're off and running. Tonight we have an ACC match up that has become much more than a family rivalry but a legit match up between hopeful ACC contenders. During the off season the word at Florida State was that changes were happening, Bobby shook up the coaching staff and the offense is promised to be more formidable than the past few years. While change was needed in Tallahassee, one has to wonder if that change will bring immediate results. FSU's personnel hasn't changed drastically since last season and in terms of their stout defense they lost two leaders in linebackers Lawrence Timmons and Buster Davis. Clemson came out firing last season and eventually faded down the stretch but they have a legit twosome in their backfield. Tonight Clemson are home dogs although they have won 3 out of the past 4. The home team has gone 8-1 ATS the past 9 meetings. Tonight I am going small with the Clemson Tigers.
Clemson +4 100.00/90.00
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