YTD:2-1 (.667)
ATS:2-0
Moneyline:0-1
Money:+310
Well, it is finally upon us, after thousands of preseason predictions,hundreds of camp confidential articles and one federal indictment the NFL regular season is going to begin. Like many red blooded males around the country (albeit a small eyed black haired one) I can not wait until 8:30 PM tonight. Good thing the NFL is all about money and exposure because we have a good one tonight.
Both the Colts and the Saints come into the season as Super Bowl contenders, however I believe that the Saints have the easier road. Looking at both teams there are some issues surrounding them and these issues will be points of emphasis for tonight's matchup
The Colts
Positives:
1. Peyton Manning is still their quarterback. Whatever has been said about Manning before, you can throw out the window, he dis spelled all his critics last year and got the monkey off his back known as New England
2. Joseph Addai. Addai came in as a rookie last season to be a complement to Dominic Rhodes, it became very apparent as the season wore on that Addai was Indy's best back. Addai is a good tough nosed runner and has excelled at the stretch play the Colt's run so often. Addai also has good hands and can be a serviceable receiving option of the backfield when called upon.
Negatives:
1. Defense. Say what you want about Bob Sanders (he's a ball of energy, a good tackler and the leader of the secondary) but he can't make every tackle for the Colts tonight. It was no secret last year that the Colts run defense was abhorrent. This season they don't look to get much better, especially with the injury of run stopping stalwart Booger McFarland.
2. Depth. I worry about the depth the Colts have, Addai currently is the only back on their roster that has any experience. Which poses the question, what about third down? Also because the injury to McFarland they are thin up front at DT.
The Saints
Positives:
1. Offense. You would be hard pressed to find an offensive as explosive as the Colts, well the Saints might be one of the few teams in the land to boast the offensive personnel that could trump the Colts. Sean Payton has shown to be a master at exploiting matchups and Reggie Bush is only going to get better in year 2.
2. Hunger. Unlike the Colts, the Saints suffered a heartbreaking loss in the NFC championship game. I believe Payton is a good motivator and will have his team ready.
Negatives:
1. Secondary. Much like last season the Saints secondary isn't its strongest unit on the field. They did make some additions to that unit in Jason David (CB) and Kevin Kaesviharn (S). The Saints still have some mismatches when it comes to CB- WR coverage and while Kaesviharn is a decent player, he's not a safety that you would expect to anchor a secondary.
2. Expectations. The Saints were just happy to be playing football last season after Katrina and ended up being "America's team" (Sorry Cowboys). They came into the season with low expectations and ended up surprising every one with their run to the NFC title game. This season the script has been flipped and New Orleans is one of the few teams in the NFC making a Super Bowl run. How they handle the expectations of being favorites can contribute to their play on the field or their preparation off the field.
The Lines opened at NO + 6.5 and O/U at 52
I feel pretty comfortable with the spread and I believe that New Orleans can win straight up (ML +220). Looking at the O/U, I am a little hesistant. It is the first game of the season and offenses usually do take a bit of time to get into sync, also I believe the best way for the Saints to win on the road would be to give the Colts D a steady helping of McAllister on the inside and Bush on the outside or with screens. This not only takes away the crowd and eats up the clock but it also forces Indy to bring 8 into the box if NO establishes the run well enough. If Sanders is forced into the box then Indy has some problems.
My Pick: 2 team teaser
NO +12.5
O/U 46 (over)
150.00/137.00
*EDIT*
10 pt teaser
NO +16
Oregon State +7
Louisville -31
200.00/167.00
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Tennis Tuesdays!
YTD:2-0
ATS:2-0
Money:+360
After a great start to the college football season, I am betting on tennis. I know I know, my manifesto hasn't really held true but look at tonight's match I just feel there is too much value to pass up. Tennis and soccer are two exotics that a lot of people stay away from because of sport knowledge, however both of these sports exhibit many money making lines that can be taken advantage of by cappers. It remains true that someone like Federer is going to command ridiculous moneylines in early as well as later rounds. Later rounds for most players is where you start to find some value.
Tonight in New York, American Serena Williams faces off against Belgian Justine Henin. Both are familiar with each other's games and Henin actually holds a 2-1 advantage in matches they've played so far this year. Henin's wins came on the clay at Roland Garros and the grass at Wimbledon while Serena took their one hard court match. Henin is accustomed to Serena's strong serve game, however I believe Serena will have the advantage of not only playing on a hard court but playing underneath the lights at Arthur Ashe. I believe that Serena's ML value here is good. It enticed me and I made a small play.
Serena Williams (+200 ML) 50.00/100.00
ATS:2-0
Money:+360
After a great start to the college football season, I am betting on tennis. I know I know, my manifesto hasn't really held true but look at tonight's match I just feel there is too much value to pass up. Tennis and soccer are two exotics that a lot of people stay away from because of sport knowledge, however both of these sports exhibit many money making lines that can be taken advantage of by cappers. It remains true that someone like Federer is going to command ridiculous moneylines in early as well as later rounds. Later rounds for most players is where you start to find some value.
Tonight in New York, American Serena Williams faces off against Belgian Justine Henin. Both are familiar with each other's games and Henin actually holds a 2-1 advantage in matches they've played so far this year. Henin's wins came on the clay at Roland Garros and the grass at Wimbledon while Serena took their one hard court match. Henin is accustomed to Serena's strong serve game, however I believe Serena will have the advantage of not only playing on a hard court but playing underneath the lights at Arthur Ashe. I believe that Serena's ML value here is good. It enticed me and I made a small play.
Serena Williams (+200 ML) 50.00/100.00
Monday, September 03, 2007
Monday Night ACC
YTD: 1-0
ATS: 1-0
Money:+270
The college football season has kicked off and we're off and running. Tonight we have an ACC match up that has become much more than a family rivalry but a legit match up between hopeful ACC contenders. During the off season the word at Florida State was that changes were happening, Bobby shook up the coaching staff and the offense is promised to be more formidable than the past few years. While change was needed in Tallahassee, one has to wonder if that change will bring immediate results. FSU's personnel hasn't changed drastically since last season and in terms of their stout defense they lost two leaders in linebackers Lawrence Timmons and Buster Davis. Clemson came out firing last season and eventually faded down the stretch but they have a legit twosome in their backfield. Tonight Clemson are home dogs although they have won 3 out of the past 4. The home team has gone 8-1 ATS the past 9 meetings. Tonight I am going small with the Clemson Tigers.
Clemson +4 100.00/90.00
ATS: 1-0
Money:+270
The college football season has kicked off and we're off and running. Tonight we have an ACC match up that has become much more than a family rivalry but a legit match up between hopeful ACC contenders. During the off season the word at Florida State was that changes were happening, Bobby shook up the coaching staff and the offense is promised to be more formidable than the past few years. While change was needed in Tallahassee, one has to wonder if that change will bring immediate results. FSU's personnel hasn't changed drastically since last season and in terms of their stout defense they lost two leaders in linebackers Lawrence Timmons and Buster Davis. Clemson came out firing last season and eventually faded down the stretch but they have a legit twosome in their backfield. Tonight Clemson are home dogs although they have won 3 out of the past 4. The home team has gone 8-1 ATS the past 9 meetings. Tonight I am going small with the Clemson Tigers.
Clemson +4 100.00/90.00
Thursday, August 30, 2007
College Football Thursday
Hi again fellow cappers!!
I know it's seemed like forever but finally football season has arrived. Like the many teams scattered across the land, cappers begin the season as eternal optimists. We're a year wiser, have better or more refined handicapping methods and we're convinced this year will be our year. Like many teams however (at least college teams) our hopes and dreams are gashed the first few weeks of the season and if the potential pitfall is too much we're out of chase early. My goal is to keep you in that hunt, not by flash or short term goals but by making smart choices over the course of a long season that result in profits in the long run.
This year I will use a couple of determining factors in making capping decisions, they are as follows:
Gut feeling - Like Warren Buffett has said, go with your gut feeling first. I can't tell you how many games over the past few years I've had gut feelings about only to change my mind at the last moment because of some statistical analysis.
Familiarity - Stick with teams that you know a lot about. This differs from teams that you have a bias about. But if your in Big East country and know a lot of teams, schedules, players, coaches, schemes etc... obviously you have an upper hand on someone who doesn't. Familiarity allows you to play smart and restricts how many plays you make. So if your having a bad week, your not reaching for the SKY game of the week just to get back to black.
Statistical Analysis - Statistical analysis is one of the greatest tools out there, however it shouldn't be the one determining factor when capping games. I usually look over games first to see if any lines are favorable. Once those games are chosen, statistical analysis helps either cement the fact that I am going to wager or it will steer me away from the game. Unlike the other two there are many analysis tools out there for games, however try to keep your sources short, information overload sometimes can be counter productive.
These are the main sources I use for stat analysis
1. Sagarin ratings. These ratings are compiled by USA Today columnist Jeff Sagarin. The Sagarin ratings are a great tool for analyzing point spreads, when used correctly most of the time the difference of the two ratings for the teams equals the Vegas point spread. However there are times when you see the difference between the Sagarin and the real point spread. The differences are the key, sometimes there will be an advantage found using these ratings that could potentially uncover some good valued spreads.
2. Team Rankings. Team rankings is very similar to the Sagarin ratings in that if you take the difference of the ratings between the two teams that should be the margin of the game. Much like Sagarin I would say about 90% of the time those numbers are within 1-2 pts of the actual point spread. Again, it is a helpful tool because you can potentially spot flaws in the lines using the ranking numbers thus uncovering a good line.
3. Covers.com. Covers is pretty much my ultimate resource when it comes to capping. Not only do they offer extensive match up coverage they also have free professional advice. I believe that the most powerful tool that covers.com offers is their forums. If you look at covers.com forums on any day you find hundreds of seasoned cappers who offer good insight into games and teams. The forums have been an invaluable resource the past few years for me.
Again, these are just suggestions and tools that I use. I also do factor in some sportswriters predictions to provide a guideline for which teams to look at during the week. Alright, enough with introductions, lets get down to the nitty gritty.
Week 1 - Thursday
LSU -17 1/2
300.00/270.00
I know it's seemed like forever but finally football season has arrived. Like the many teams scattered across the land, cappers begin the season as eternal optimists. We're a year wiser, have better or more refined handicapping methods and we're convinced this year will be our year. Like many teams however (at least college teams) our hopes and dreams are gashed the first few weeks of the season and if the potential pitfall is too much we're out of chase early. My goal is to keep you in that hunt, not by flash or short term goals but by making smart choices over the course of a long season that result in profits in the long run.
This year I will use a couple of determining factors in making capping decisions, they are as follows:
Gut feeling - Like Warren Buffett has said, go with your gut feeling first. I can't tell you how many games over the past few years I've had gut feelings about only to change my mind at the last moment because of some statistical analysis.
Familiarity - Stick with teams that you know a lot about. This differs from teams that you have a bias about. But if your in Big East country and know a lot of teams, schedules, players, coaches, schemes etc... obviously you have an upper hand on someone who doesn't. Familiarity allows you to play smart and restricts how many plays you make. So if your having a bad week, your not reaching for the SKY game of the week just to get back to black.
Statistical Analysis - Statistical analysis is one of the greatest tools out there, however it shouldn't be the one determining factor when capping games. I usually look over games first to see if any lines are favorable. Once those games are chosen, statistical analysis helps either cement the fact that I am going to wager or it will steer me away from the game. Unlike the other two there are many analysis tools out there for games, however try to keep your sources short, information overload sometimes can be counter productive.
These are the main sources I use for stat analysis
1. Sagarin ratings. These ratings are compiled by USA Today columnist Jeff Sagarin. The Sagarin ratings are a great tool for analyzing point spreads, when used correctly most of the time the difference of the two ratings for the teams equals the Vegas point spread. However there are times when you see the difference between the Sagarin and the real point spread. The differences are the key, sometimes there will be an advantage found using these ratings that could potentially uncover some good valued spreads.
2. Team Rankings. Team rankings is very similar to the Sagarin ratings in that if you take the difference of the ratings between the two teams that should be the margin of the game. Much like Sagarin I would say about 90% of the time those numbers are within 1-2 pts of the actual point spread. Again, it is a helpful tool because you can potentially spot flaws in the lines using the ranking numbers thus uncovering a good line.
3. Covers.com. Covers is pretty much my ultimate resource when it comes to capping. Not only do they offer extensive match up coverage they also have free professional advice. I believe that the most powerful tool that covers.com offers is their forums. If you look at covers.com forums on any day you find hundreds of seasoned cappers who offer good insight into games and teams. The forums have been an invaluable resource the past few years for me.
Again, these are just suggestions and tools that I use. I also do factor in some sportswriters predictions to provide a guideline for which teams to look at during the week. Alright, enough with introductions, lets get down to the nitty gritty.
Week 1 - Thursday
LSU -17 1/2
300.00/270.00
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
NBA/NCAA Best Bets 03.06.07
Last night I didn't post anything however I played
NYI- 1 unit
3 team 4 pt teaser - 1 unit to win 2
San Antonio Spurs- -1.5
Houston Rockets - +7
Orlando Magic - -1
YTD: +1.5 units
Full slate of games tonight, will post plays soon.
NYI- 1 unit
3 team 4 pt teaser - 1 unit to win 2
San Antonio Spurs- -1.5
Houston Rockets - +7
Orlando Magic - -1
YTD: +1.5 units
Full slate of games tonight, will post plays soon.
Saturday, March 03, 2007
NCAA BEST BETS 03.03.07
No Plays Last night and an 0-2 night previously. Some early plays so far, more to come.
YTD:+.5
2 Team 4 Pt Teaser- 2 units
Texas +13
Georgetown -7 1/2
Update:
Pitt: +1 - 1 unit
2 Team 4 1/2 Pt Teaser - 1 unit
Pitt +5.5
Memphis -10
YTD:+.5
2 Team 4 Pt Teaser- 2 units
Texas +13
Georgetown -7 1/2
Update:
Pitt: +1 - 1 unit
2 Team 4 1/2 Pt Teaser - 1 unit
Pitt +5.5
Memphis -10
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
NBA Best Bets 02.28.07
Last Night we went 1-0 as Dallas handled their business like always
YTD: +2 units
Tonight there is a full plate of NBA, as of right now I only have one play on the board
Phoenix Suns: -4.5 First Half - 1 unit
Tread lightly with this pick, Phoenix is coming off a B2B on a long road trip and most likely Diaw won't be available. However Philly is abysmal and are bound to let up points.
Update:
ML Parlay: .5 units to win 1 unit
Houston Rockets
Texas Tech
Kentucky
Nebraska
YTD: +2 units
Tonight there is a full plate of NBA, as of right now I only have one play on the board
Phoenix Suns: -4.5 First Half - 1 unit
Tread lightly with this pick, Phoenix is coming off a B2B on a long road trip and most likely Diaw won't be available. However Philly is abysmal and are bound to let up points.
Update:
ML Parlay: .5 units to win 1 unit
Houston Rockets
Texas Tech
Kentucky
Nebraska
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
NBA Best Bets 02.27.07
Last Night We went 1-1, 'Cuse got a must needed win and Kansas blew out Ok. in the first half.
YTD: +.5 units
Tonight I am going with another first half line, Dallas is 10-0 coming off a win in a B2B, part of this is due to their deep bench and their defense, I'm riding that train
Dallas Mavericks: -2 First Half - 1.5 units
YTD: +.5 units
Tonight I am going with another first half line, Dallas is 10-0 coming off a win in a B2B, part of this is due to their deep bench and their defense, I'm riding that train
Dallas Mavericks: -2 First Half - 1.5 units
Monday, February 26, 2007
NBA and NCAA Best Bets 02.26.07
Saturday we went 1-0, the Raptors are a great ATS team and they should scare some teams in the Leastern conference come playoff time.
YTD:0 units
Tonight I am tailing two hot college teams.
Kansas Jayhawks:-3.5 First Half - 1.5 units
Georgetown Hoyas: -3 Game - 1 unit
I know these may not be popular plays but Kansas is too hot to lose to lowly Oklahoma and although Syracuse needs this Big East game badly, Hibbert, Green and company are on the upswing.
YTD:0 units
Tonight I am tailing two hot college teams.
Kansas Jayhawks:-3.5 First Half - 1.5 units
Georgetown Hoyas: -3 Game - 1 unit
I know these may not be popular plays but Kansas is too hot to lose to lowly Oklahoma and although Syracuse needs this Big East game badly, Hibbert, Green and company are on the upswing.
Saturday, February 24, 2007
NBA Best Bets 02.24.2007
Last night we went 1-2
YTD: -1 unit
Tonight so far the only play I have is:
Raptors : -2.5 - 1 unit
I am also leaning on Seattle at +10, Seattle is a different team with Rashard Lewis in the lineup. I also might post some college plays so stay tuned
YTD: -1 unit
Tonight so far the only play I have is:
Raptors : -2.5 - 1 unit
I am also leaning on Seattle at +10, Seattle is a different team with Rashard Lewis in the lineup. I also might post some college plays so stay tuned
Friday, February 23, 2007
NBA Best Bets 2.23.07
Back after a break again, money is too hard to keep track of for practical purposes so I will start posting based on units. 1 unit = $100, good luck to all !!
Pistons : -2.5 (1 unit)
Houston: -5 (1 unit)
The Pistons are on a hot streak and have meshed real well with Webber at center. Orlando does have the revenge factor here, however they are pretty short up front with Battie injured and Detroits front line will be too much for the Magic to handle.
added: Pistons first Half : -1.5 (1 unit)
Pistons : -2.5 (1 unit)
Houston: -5 (1 unit)
The Pistons are on a hot streak and have meshed real well with Webber at center. Orlando does have the revenge factor here, however they are pretty short up front with Battie injured and Detroits front line will be too much for the Magic to handle.
added: Pistons first Half : -1.5 (1 unit)
Friday, January 19, 2007
NBA. Best Bets. 1/19/07
Well, I already made a long post about tonight but I forgot to save it. So that's down the tubes and I'm just going to post my picks.
Last night: (0-1)(.000)
Day three: -300.00
Week to date:-800.00
Week to date:(2-5) (.286)
Today's Pick:
3 team teaser (7 pts)
Washington +11 (+4)
Utah +8 (+1)
Miami +4 (-3)
125.00/104.00
3 team teaser (7 pts)
San Antonio -7.5 (-14.5)
Phoenix -7.5 (-14.5)
Cleveland +8 (+1)
175.00/145.83
Last night: (0-1)(.000)
Day three: -300.00
Week to date:-800.00
Week to date:(2-5) (.286)
Today's Pick:
3 team teaser (7 pts)
Washington +11 (+4)
Utah +8 (+1)
Miami +4 (-3)
125.00/104.00
3 team teaser (7 pts)
San Antonio -7.5 (-14.5)
Phoenix -7.5 (-14.5)
Cleveland +8 (+1)
175.00/145.83
Thursday, January 18, 2007
NBA. NCAA. Best Bets 1/18/07
Last night was rough and the first two days of the week are looking pretty bleek, again though I will try to remain the eternal optimist, there are still 5 more days left, including big NFL games this weekend. Tonight I don't like to much on the board so I think I'm going to play a teaser.
Last night: (1-1)(50%)
Buffalo (NHL) (-250) 150.00/60.00 Win
Phoenix -3 (1st half line)(NBA) (-105) 250.00/238.10 Loss
Day 2: -190.00
Week to date: -500.00
Week to date: 2-4 (.333)
Today's Pick:
3 team basketball teaser 7 pts
Arizona + 6 (-1)
Duke -8 (-15)
La Lakers +17 (+10)
300.00/250.00
Last night: (1-1)(50%)
Buffalo (NHL) (-250) 150.00/60.00 Win
Phoenix -3 (1st half line)(NBA) (-105) 250.00/238.10 Loss
Day 2: -190.00
Week to date: -500.00
Week to date: 2-4 (.333)
Today's Pick:
3 team basketball teaser 7 pts
Arizona + 6 (-1)
Duke -8 (-15)
La Lakers +17 (+10)
300.00/250.00
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
NBA. NCAA. Best Bets 1/17/07
Alright, after another brief absence from posting I am back, the past few weeks have been up and down, although after looking at most of my picks and the results I've decided to start keeping numbers on a week to week basis to better assess where my weaknesses and strengths are located.
So far this week, has turned out pretty bad after one day. But when there is a negative, a positive remains on the other side and my positive is that I still have 6 more days to make it up.
Last night: (1-3) (25%)
Team League/Odds Amount Result
Houston +8.0 (NBA) (-110) 150.00/135.00 L
Cleveland -2.5 (NBA) (-110) 150.00/135.00 L
Pittsburgh -7 (NCAAB) (-110) 100.00/90.00 W
Air Force -7 (NCAAB) (-110) 100.00/90.00 L
Day 1: -310.00
While I won't be writing up every pick I make from here on out, picks that I feel strongly about I will do a brief write up on.
Today's Picks:
Buffalo (NHL)(-250) 150.00/60.00
- Buffalo is coming off a tough shoot out loss at Boston just 2 days ago. Luckily for the Sabres, Boston is pretty bad on the road with a less than .500 record. Boston is also a paltry 1-5 (.167) their last 6 road games and they are also 2-9 (.182) in their last 11 against Buffalo. Although the money line is so high, I believe this game is a good value for Buffalo backers because of the revenge factor. -
Phoenix -3(1st half line) (NBA)(-105) 250.00/238.10
Who doesn't love the Suns?? They play a great style of basketball and unlike many teams that try to emulate their style, they are one of the few teams around that actually have the personnel to run it. Amare Stoudemire's injury last year might have been a blessing in disguise, I don't know if Marion, Diaw and Bell would have had career years last year with Stoudemire in the lineup, it gave them time to mesh better with Nash, along with raising their confidence in their own abilities. With the addition of Stoudemire, not only does Nash have another weapon at his disposal on the fast break but more importantly a big man who can play pick and roll in the half court, also it has been harped on many times before but Stoudemire brings an imposing presence in the paint.
Enough with my lovefest for the Suns. Why do I like them tonight? Well a few reasons....
1. Tracy McGrady's back. I know TMac will play tonight and I know that maybe for a half he's going to get his but when Van Gundy finally has to give him a break in the game, will his back flare up again?? Even if TMac is injured, he is still a dangerous scorer, however, who else is going to be able to step up if he can't score?
2. Age. Dikembe Mutumbo has been very active on the boards filling in admirably for the injured Yao Ming, he has been seeing more minutes than usual and has been playing good defense for Van Gundy and what more can you ask for out of a 40 year old center? As well as Mutumbo has performed on the glass, his offense has been abysmal, he had only 3 pts in 28 minutes in the loss to Dallas last night. For the Rockets, this game couldn't come at a worse time. A back to back can't be to kind to the likes of Mutumbo, Juwan Howard and even McGrady to an extent. Are they going to be able to run the floor all night? I don't really think so
3. Phoenix dominates halves. Looking at the last ten games the Suns have played, it has become obvious that during the first half these guys pummel people. During the last ten Phoenix has averaged an astonishing 61.1 pts per half, not coincidentally these large point amounts also register to large leads, on average they go into the half with about an 8.8 pt lead over their opponent. Also on 5 of those occasions the Suns have gone into the half with a double digit lead.
4. History. Everyone knows that Houston loves to play half court, slow the game down, get the ball to playmakers and play good half court defense. Observers see the Suns vs. the Rockets as a clash of styles and everyone knows they can't play full court with Phoenix so they try to slow the game down. As good of a coach as JVG is, past evidence supports the theory that as much as he tries, he cannot slow the Suns down. Here are the half totals for the last 3 head to head matchups between the teams.
2-16-06 Phoenix 63 Houston 31
2-27-06* Phoenix 52 Houston 49
11-29-06 Phoenix 57 Houston 40
*On 2-27-06, the line for the whole game was PHX -2, so in theory PHX covered that first half
So far this week, has turned out pretty bad after one day. But when there is a negative, a positive remains on the other side and my positive is that I still have 6 more days to make it up.
Last night: (1-3) (25%)
Team League/Odds Amount Result
Houston +8.0 (NBA) (-110) 150.00/135.00 L
Cleveland -2.5 (NBA) (-110) 150.00/135.00 L
Pittsburgh -7 (NCAAB) (-110) 100.00/90.00 W
Air Force -7 (NCAAB) (-110) 100.00/90.00 L
Day 1: -310.00
While I won't be writing up every pick I make from here on out, picks that I feel strongly about I will do a brief write up on.
Today's Picks:
Buffalo (NHL)(-250) 150.00/60.00
- Buffalo is coming off a tough shoot out loss at Boston just 2 days ago. Luckily for the Sabres, Boston is pretty bad on the road with a less than .500 record. Boston is also a paltry 1-5 (.167) their last 6 road games and they are also 2-9 (.182) in their last 11 against Buffalo. Although the money line is so high, I believe this game is a good value for Buffalo backers because of the revenge factor. -
Phoenix -3(1st half line) (NBA)(-105) 250.00/238.10
Who doesn't love the Suns?? They play a great style of basketball and unlike many teams that try to emulate their style, they are one of the few teams around that actually have the personnel to run it. Amare Stoudemire's injury last year might have been a blessing in disguise, I don't know if Marion, Diaw and Bell would have had career years last year with Stoudemire in the lineup, it gave them time to mesh better with Nash, along with raising their confidence in their own abilities. With the addition of Stoudemire, not only does Nash have another weapon at his disposal on the fast break but more importantly a big man who can play pick and roll in the half court, also it has been harped on many times before but Stoudemire brings an imposing presence in the paint.
Enough with my lovefest for the Suns. Why do I like them tonight? Well a few reasons....
1. Tracy McGrady's back. I know TMac will play tonight and I know that maybe for a half he's going to get his but when Van Gundy finally has to give him a break in the game, will his back flare up again?? Even if TMac is injured, he is still a dangerous scorer, however, who else is going to be able to step up if he can't score?
2. Age. Dikembe Mutumbo has been very active on the boards filling in admirably for the injured Yao Ming, he has been seeing more minutes than usual and has been playing good defense for Van Gundy and what more can you ask for out of a 40 year old center? As well as Mutumbo has performed on the glass, his offense has been abysmal, he had only 3 pts in 28 minutes in the loss to Dallas last night. For the Rockets, this game couldn't come at a worse time. A back to back can't be to kind to the likes of Mutumbo, Juwan Howard and even McGrady to an extent. Are they going to be able to run the floor all night? I don't really think so
3. Phoenix dominates halves. Looking at the last ten games the Suns have played, it has become obvious that during the first half these guys pummel people. During the last ten Phoenix has averaged an astonishing 61.1 pts per half, not coincidentally these large point amounts also register to large leads, on average they go into the half with about an 8.8 pt lead over their opponent. Also on 5 of those occasions the Suns have gone into the half with a double digit lead.
4. History. Everyone knows that Houston loves to play half court, slow the game down, get the ball to playmakers and play good half court defense. Observers see the Suns vs. the Rockets as a clash of styles and everyone knows they can't play full court with Phoenix so they try to slow the game down. As good of a coach as JVG is, past evidence supports the theory that as much as he tries, he cannot slow the Suns down. Here are the half totals for the last 3 head to head matchups between the teams.
2-16-06 Phoenix 63 Houston 31
2-27-06* Phoenix 52 Houston 49
11-29-06 Phoenix 57 Houston 40
*On 2-27-06, the line for the whole game was PHX -2, so in theory PHX covered that first half
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