College Football Thursday

Hi again fellow cappers!!

I know it's seemed like forever but finally football season has arrived. Like the many teams scattered across the land, cappers begin the season as eternal optimists. We're a year wiser, have better or more refined handicapping methods and we're convinced this year will be our year. Like many teams however (at least college teams) our hopes and dreams are gashed the first few weeks of the season and if the potential pitfall is too much we're out of chase early. My goal is to keep you in that hunt, not by flash or short term goals but by making smart choices over the course of a long season that result in profits in the long run.

This year I will use a couple of determining factors in making capping decisions, they are as follows:

Gut feeling - Like Warren Buffett has said, go with your gut feeling first. I can't tell you how many games over the past few years I've had gut feelings about only to change my mind at the last moment because of some statistical analysis.

Familiarity - Stick with teams that you know a lot about. This differs from teams that you have a bias about. But if your in Big East country and know a lot of teams, schedules, players, coaches, schemes etc... obviously you have an upper hand on someone who doesn't. Familiarity allows you to play smart and restricts how many plays you make. So if your having a bad week, your not reaching for the SKY game of the week just to get back to black.

Statistical Analysis - Statistical analysis is one of the greatest tools out there, however it shouldn't be the one determining factor when capping games. I usually look over games first to see if any lines are favorable. Once those games are chosen, statistical analysis helps either cement the fact that I am going to wager or it will steer me away from the game. Unlike the other two there are many analysis tools out there for games, however try to keep your sources short, information overload sometimes can be counter productive.

These are the main sources I use for stat analysis
1. Sagarin ratings. These ratings are compiled by USA Today columnist Jeff Sagarin. The Sagarin ratings are a great tool for analyzing point spreads, when used correctly most of the time the difference of the two ratings for the teams equals the Vegas point spread. However there are times when you see the difference between the Sagarin and the real point spread. The differences are the key, sometimes there will be an advantage found using these ratings that could potentially uncover some good valued spreads.

2. Team Rankings. Team rankings is very similar to the Sagarin ratings in that if you take the difference of the ratings between the two teams that should be the margin of the game. Much like Sagarin I would say about 90% of the time those numbers are within 1-2 pts of the actual point spread. Again, it is a helpful tool because you can potentially spot flaws in the lines using the ranking numbers thus uncovering a good line.

3. Covers.com. Covers is pretty much my ultimate resource when it comes to capping. Not only do they offer extensive match up coverage they also have free professional advice. I believe that the most powerful tool that covers.com offers is their forums. If you look at covers.com forums on any day you find hundreds of seasoned cappers who offer good insight into games and teams. The forums have been an invaluable resource the past few years for me.

Again, these are just suggestions and tools that I use. I also do factor in some sportswriters predictions to provide a guideline for which teams to look at during the week. Alright, enough with introductions, lets get down to the nitty gritty.

Week 1 - Thursday

LSU -17 1/2
300.00/270.00