Back for the First Time

After a long absence of not documenting my picks I am back. I still have retained some profit for the betting season, one week I'm hot up $2000 in 2 days and down $2000 in 2 days. Much like being on tilt, I let my head get inflated when I'm up and start chasing teasers and parlays that are really not good percentage plays. So after last weekends fiasco down $2250 Saturday and Sunday including a NFL 12 team teaser where New England was the only game I didn't hit, I am back with a head full of sense and vengeance looking for the best values out there for me and you. I am going to start with a fresh slate of 0-0 and with no profit. The goal here is to hit about 67% of my games, although that is not necessary for a profit if good money management comes into play. During my short time as a handicapper I have realized a few things and those ideals have become my mantra for betting.

Don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
Don't chase losses.
Good money management is key.

Alright enough with the chitchat lets get on to tonight!

YTD - 0-0

This year the stories in basketball and football are all about conferences. In the NFL it's obvious the AFC is the dominant conference with possibly 3 or 4 Super Bowl contenders while the NFC may have a hope in Chicago if Rex Grossman doesn't turn the ball over too much. In the NBA it is much the same, in the Western conference it looks like 6 teams could contend for the title, if they don't beat on each other too much in the playoffs. The same cannot be said for the sad sad Eastern conference, Orlando leads the conference in wins although they are starting to slump a little and are a young team. No team in the East looks like a standout although I believe Miami will start to get a little better and when Shaq comes back he will make them a contender.

This prelude leads me into tonight's games, there really isn't too much on the table, 1 NFL and 3 NBA and I haven't really seen enough college basketball yet this season to make accurate and informed picks (although if Pitt is ever a 20 point favorite or more, bet against them). So far, I have one pick tonight and here it is.

The Pick:
San Antonio -7 (-110)
100.00/90.91

Both teams are coming off wins from their last games, New Orleans beat a slumping and very disappointing Cleveland team while San Antonio beat Minnesota, again the conferences come into play as the East is obviously the weaker the conference when a mid level team from the West can go into your home (Clev.) and beat you. San Antonio is 5-1 SU and ATS in their last 6 including a point differential of around 15 pts a game. New Orleans on the other hand is 2-3 SU in its last 5, compiling a 2-2-1 ATS record in the same span.
While it does concern me the Spurs are playing a B2B which they have a horrible record in ATS the last few years, New Orleans will not be able to match up the whole game. With the injuries of Peja Stojakovic, David West and Bobby Jackson New Orleans is hard pressed when it comes to scoring and Chris Paul will not be able to drop 30 every night, especially tonight when he has to run around chasing Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili. New Orleans only goes 2 or 3 deep with 1 guard coming off the bench and 2 relatively inexperienced forwards who don't score many points to begin with. Conversely, San Antonio usually goes at least 4 deep on their bench including scorers Michael Finley and Brent Barry( who is shooting at about a 55% clip from 3). The bench of San Antonio will help combat their fatigue from a B2B and propel them to a win.

Stats to ponder:
Last 5
San Antonio defensive 3 pt FG % - 32.4
San Antonio offensive 3 pt FG % - 45.7%
New Orleans FT% - 65.4%

Prediction: San Antonio 101 - New Orleans 90

UPDATE: 8:27 PM

The Pick:
Golden State -4.5
100.00/95.20

I look at this game tonight as a potential runaway for Golden State. Golden State is coming off a win against Sacramento at home and are 10-5 at home ATS this year. More importantly is the fact that Tracy McGrady is out tonight for the Rockets. Without McGrady, Yao is going to be double teamed alot more in the post and will have to depend on Rafer Alston, Luther Head and Shane Battier to compensate for the scoring punch that TMac usually brings. Yao will also have trouble against the Warriors because of the breakneck pace that they employ. In fact with the pace that Golden State employs they average about 7 more possessions per game than Houston while also shooting a better percentage at the same time. Van Gundy will try to have his Houston team dictate pace in order to keep the scoring down, this will be quite a task considering Golden State averages an absurd 108 pts at home. Although it is not mentioned too much Golden State's defensive FG% at home isn't really that bad (43.9%) its just that because of the pace they play at alot of points are scored. Because Golden State is at home, TMac is out and the fact some Warriors players might be playing hard because of the Allen Iverson rumors the Warriors take this one easily tonight.

Stats to ponder:
12/5/06 - Golden State at Houston - Tracy McGrady 31 pts
Golden State - ranked top 10 in both FG% (4th) and 3 pt FG% (6th)
Houston - ranked #1 in NBA defensive FG%

Prediction: Golden State 102 - Houston 89

Monday NIght Football Sept. 18

Record YTD
13-5 (.722)
Teasers (9-5)
ATS (4-0)

+ 1975.97

Alright, I had a really rough Saturday but I have bounced back with two good bets on Sunday cutting my losses to roughly a hundred dollars. Monday will put me over and will actually net me a small profit this betting weekend.

Teaser (7 pts)

Steelers -2.5 (+4.5)
Over 37.5 (30.5)

430.00/330.80

**Edit**

Steelers -3 (+4)
Over 37 (30)

300.00/230.80

NFL Sunday Night. Weekend Recap

Record YTD
12-5 (.706)
Teasers (8-5)
ATS (4-0)

+1764.47

So, college was an absolute disaster this weekend, I went 0-3 losing a combined 350.00 in the process, luckily my NFL teaser hit, although I believe I could have just parlayed it. I made a Sunday Night football bet in hopes of making back some of what I lost. Here it is

Teaser (7pts)

Cowboys -7 (0)
Over 37 (30)

275.00/211.50

The Weekend

Record YTD
11-2 (.846)
Teasers (7-2)
ATS (4-0)

+2114.47

Here are some really early teasers I took today, more updates will come as the games progress.

College:

Teaser (7pts)

Notre Dame -5.5(+1.5)
USC -17.5 (-10.5)
Oregon -5 (+2)

300.00/420.00

NFL:

Teaser (7pts)

Bengals -10.5 (-3.5)
Ravens -12.5 (-5.5)
Colts -13.5 (-6.5)
Chargers -12 (-5)

250.00/500.00

*Edit*

Boston College -7 (0)
Bowling Green -5.5 (+1.5)
Miami (Ohio) -13 (-6)
Texas -33 (-26)

200.00/400.00

*Edit*
I needed to make some money back so I put in a teaser on USC

Teaser (7pts)
USC -17 (-10)
Over 56 (49)

350.00/269.20

Thursday Night Sept. 14 College

Record YTD
10-2 (.8333)
Teasers (6-2)
ATS (4-0)

+1883.67

Tonights Bet:
Another teaser for my money making faithful, again this one might kick me in the butt and hit as a parlay, but I feel really good with the teaser.

Teaser (7 Pts)
West Virginia -18 (-11)
Over 50.5 (43.5)

300.00/230.80

Monday NIght NFL

YTD Record
10-2(.8333)
Teasers (6-2)
ATS (4-0)

+1883.67

I really really liked the Chargers tonight at Oakland, the Raiders are such garbage and Art Shell really isn't that great a coach, well I really liked the Chargers that much that I risked almost all my weekends profits but it turned out for the better

Pick: Chargers -3

600.00/545.00

Sunday Sept 10 Aftermath

YTD Record
9-2 (.818)
Teasers (6-2)
ATS (3-0)

+1338.67

So Yesterday could have ended up a diaster, my first teaser which I already posted didn't hit and another teaser I bet was also contigent on Carolina (which was bad betting on a home underdog, when the opposing teams only offensive weapon is absent )
Here are my other bets from yesterday,

Teaser (6.5 pts) Loss
Bengals +1.5 (+8)
Patriots -10 (-3.5)
Seahawks -6.5 (0)

250.00/400.00

Teaser(7 pts) Win
Cardinals -9 (-2)
Bears -3.5 (+3.5)

200.00/153.80

NYG vs. Ind.

Pick: Ind. -3

250.00/217.40

Sunday Sept. 10 NFL Football

Record YTD
7-0
(5-0) Teasers
(2-0) ATS

+ 1,317.47

Yesterdays Teasers paid off and hopefully I can continue with my hot streak throughout the weekend. The teaser right here is one i made on Sept 5. I will prob. pick a few more before the games start, so stay tuned for those.

Teaser (7 pts)
Chicago -3.5 (+3.5)
Bengals +2.5 (+9.5)
Colts -3.5 (+3.5)
Cowboys +2.5 (+9.5)
Panthers -6 (+1)
Seahawks -6 (+1)


100.00/500.00

Saturday Sept 9. College Football

Record YTD
5-0
(3-0) Teasers
(2-0) ATS

+750.80


Last week produced some pretty good football and some pretty good results, with a good start with Pitt holding off Cinncinnati, I'm looking at the big games Penn State-Notre Dame and Ohio St. - Texas. I went with a big 4 team teaser and I'm prob. going to update later in the day with late game picks.

Teaser (7 pts)
Clemson -2.5 (+4.5)
Ohio State +2 (+9)
Oregon -3 (+4)
Notre Dame -7.5 (-.5)

200.00/400.00

*EDIT*
I decided on a 2 team teaser also.

Teaser (6.5 pts)
Texas Tech -7.5 (-1)
Texas A%M -22 (-15.5)

200.00/166.67

*EDIT*
So far, So good
Clemson 33 Boston College 34
Penn State 17 Notre Dame 41

Friday Sept. 8 College

Record YTD
4-0
(3-0) Teasers
(1-0) ATS

+ $625.80

Tonights Pick:

Pittsburgh vs. Cinncinnati

Pick: Pittsburgh -8

150.00/125.00

Sept 7 Thursday NFL

Record YTD
3-0
(2-0) teasers
(1-0) ATS

+395 YTD

Tonight: Steelers vs. Dolphins

I try to stay away from teasers, but because of Ben and how shaky the D has been in the preseason I teased again tonight.

Steelers -1.5 (5.5)
Over 34 (27)

300.00/230.80

College Football Monday 9-4-06

Alas, Monday, the day where bettors can make one last final stab before they have to pay up. Fortunately, I do not have this dilemma this week because of winning picks.

I really wanted to stay away from this huge ACC matchup but after looking at the numbers and other factors I just couldn't. Again, I teased because I don't know how much the suspensions will hurt Miami and even though Florida State made a BCS bowl last year, quite frankly they stunk, but were just rewarded because of their weak ACC division.

Here is my teaser, I teased it down 6.5 pts even though I'm pretty confident that the game will go under. Their last 5 matchups have gone under, the last three averaging around 24 pts a game.

Florida State + 3.5 (+10)
Under 39 (45.5)

150.00/125.00

Saturday Aftermath

Well the first college football has come and gone and well alot of favorites ended up covering, including Texas (-41) beating the always powerful Northern Texas.

Thankfully my teaser covered.

BUT

if i would have parlayed it, I would have won also, but alas I have a big vagina so I teased.

However, the teaser, along with my straight up bet of USC, yesterday I started this season
2-0

College Football Saturday

If your like me, Saturday couldn't come any sooner, Thursday was a teaser, if you will just a topless strip club with girls who really don't like showing much, Saturday however is the full blown deal, its strippers on yayo going all out and spreading their love all around. This year there are the usual assortment of cup cake games for big programs (Texas anyone?) to top out of conference matchups (Cal vs. Tennessee) to an opening season behemoth between two national title contenders in the ACC on Monday (Miami vs. Florida State).

These are my picks this week, I really haven't decided if I'm playing them, also I haven't done too much research and my knowledge right now is pretty sparse because it is the beginnning of the season.

Teaser ( 7 pts)
Tennessee + 2.5 ( + 9.5)
USC - 8.5 (-1.5)
Ohio State -17 (-10)


*Edit*

So far so good
Ohio State 35
Northern Illinois 12

Tennessee 21
Cal 0


100.00/140.00

USA Basketball, MLS and more........

After a prolonged absence I am back to try to figure out the world of sports handicapping.

However, this entry will contain no picks that enable you to lose your hard earned cash and curse me out. Although I would like to elaborate on some topics that have interested me lately.

Sorry Clint. The MLS has found another way to screw
you over without suspending you.

First, the soccer transfer window has produced a flurry of moves to keep fans interested before the real soccer season starts (Sorry MLS). This transfer period has seen some big changes, including Ruud moving from Manchester United along with Ronaldo getting chummy with Rooney again. For me, I was personally interested to see if any U.S. National team players would finally make the move to the Premiership. It isn't like there was too much on display at the World Cup for the Americans, they got trounced by the Czech's, battled admirably with the Italians and got out classed in a winnable game with Ghana. There were a few bright spots in an otherwise flat, predictable and hesitant attack, that bright spot being Clint Dempsey. Good ol' Deuce brought his bravado, step overs and pace to the American attack. Even before the start of the World Cup Dempsey was hoping for a transfer overseas. Well a team finally called, Charlton Athletic, the MLS received a transfer offer of 1.5 million for the midfielder. Ultimately the MLS decided against the move, their logic was that they wanted to renegotiate Dempsey's contract to keep his services in the states. This would be fine if Dempsey wanted to make some good money (he already makes 80 grand) but Dempsey unlike Landon Donovan has his eyes set on bigger things and wants to take on a bigger challenge as a player.

Now the question I have is where and how is the U.S. Soccer Federation involved (in this case not involved) with this situation?? People will tell you that the MLS is an improving league and that about half the players on the World Cup roster were from the MLS. Well thats all nice and dandy but isn't the U.S. concerned with how and where their premier players are developing? Dempsey has even been quoted saying he doesn't want to play in the MLS anymore, so why is the MLS taking this route? It's disturbing, especially the way the U.S. finished in the World Cup. I just don't see how core veterans of the national team who play in the MLS can be prepared for situations such as the World Cup when they are playing in front of maybe 10,000 fans a night and remain relatively anonymous and unscrutinized in the cities they play in. The MLS has been around for 10 years but they have to finally accept a few harsh realities.

A. The MLS will NEVER be the premier soccer league in the world. First of all the MLS has to realize that they will never become the EPL, Serie A or Bundesliga. There are too many sports competing in America to produce that many quality individuals and the best players in the world, Europeans and South Americans will always be lured to their own leagues first.

B. Landon Donovan aside, premier MLS players should and will want to make the natural progression to better leagues. Do you think when Manu Ginobili was playing in Europe he wanted to stay there and bypass the NBA when the oppurtunity arose?

more tommorrow.............

NBA: Playoffs April 27

Last night: 1-1-1
Overall:16-17-2 (.484)
Basketball:15-17-2
Baseball:1-0

Tonight we finally get to see the favorites go on the road for their first away game. The Heat, not surprisingly are favorites in Chicago. Chicago has shot lights out in their first two games, played their D against Shaq, they pretty much have played perfectly and they still lose both. Meanwhile, the Clippers, The Los Angeles Clippers, can put a stranglehold on Denver if they can pull away with a win. Finally, New Jersey goes to Indy (Such a boring series) where it looks to take a 2-1 series lead.

Miami -1
LAC +4.5
Indy -1

MLB:
STL -172
BOS -144

NBA: Playoffs April 26

Last night: 1-3-0
Overall: 15-16-1 (.483)
Basketball: 14-16-1
Baseball: 1-0

So its a good thing I didn't bet anything straight up last night, because i would have lost everything thus prompting me to sell myself to overweight lonely women who have a fetish for asian boys. Right now I will give you some quick picks, although most likely I will tease most of the games.

Mil +11
Pho -5
Dal -6.5

NBA: Playoffs April 25

Last night: 1-0-1
Overall: 14-13-1(.518) (13-11-1 ATS)(1-2 O/U)

Here are my quick picks for the night, check before game time because I'm not really sure about the games yet.

Cleveland -4
Indiana +7
San Antonio -11

I'm reluctant to take a double digit favorite in a playoff game, however it is the Spurs who look like a different team during the playoffs, Tony Parker knows no one can stop him and will assert himself even more tonight.

Bonus Pick: MLB

Boston -135
Schilling is back to Cy Young form and teaming up with the young flamethrower Papelbon they form a dangerous tandem.

NBA: Playoffs April 24

The playoffs have started and if you were like me, instead of studying most of the weekend you sat in front of the TV watching the glorious quadruple headers that included Lebrons virtuoso performance, Kobe finally realizing he has teammates and deferring to them!!! along with the usual dominance we have come to expect from both the Spurs and the Pistons.

I bet on two games during the weekend, both underdogs too.

Lakers +7
Pacers +7

Overall: 13-13 (12-11 ATS)(1-2 O/U)

I have quick picks for tonight, although i don't know if i'll actually bet on them.

Chicago +7
LAC -3

NBA: Friday April 7

Pick: DET -3.5 (vs. Orlando)
DAL +4.5 (vs. SA)
PHX -8.5 (vs. LAL)

Overall: 9-12 (8-10 ATS)(1-2 O/U)

NCAA Tournament: Championship night

Last night: 0-1
Overall: 8-11 (7-10 ATS)(1-1 O/U)


I've been in a bit of a slump lately, tonight however, will change that as my predictions for the NCAA championship game will be on point.


Florida (20-11-1 ATS, 12-20-0 O/U) vs. UCLA (22-12-0 ATS, 12-22-0 O/U)
Line: Florida -1
O/U:128.5

Under, Under, UNDER

Under is 8-2-0 in UCLA's last 10 neutral site games, while at the same time Florida has been under (5-0) in their 5 tournament games so far. Florida does like to run alot but UCLA has the athletes (as seen by the LSU and Memphis games) to make them play more of a halfcourt game. The big difference between a team like Memphis and Florida is that Florida is a lot better (in my opinion) at running their half court sets and getting a good shot. This game should be alot similiar in score to the Florida- Georgetown game (UCLA basically is a West Coast Big East team).

Pick: UNDER 128.5

Who to pick???

I've been mulling this game all day long and still haven't come up with a concrete pick, so I'll sort out my thoughts here and finally make a pick. In their tournament games not only has Florida hit the under everytime but they have also covered every time. (Stupid me for not riding them) UCLA conversely has only gone 3-2 ATS in the same game span. However, UCLA has performed admirably as dogs this year going 7-2 ATS when they are in that position and they are 6-1 ATS when the spread is 3 or less. They both played LSU late in the year with both producing convincing victories at a neutral site, although it is worth noting that Florida played LSU sans Tyrus Thomas (vs. UCLA 5 pts, 6 rebs, 3 blks). Defensive FG% is always an important thing to look at and to my surprise Florida actually boasts a better defensive FG% ( 40%, 23rd nationally) than UCLA (41.4%, 66th nationally). Florida is also better at guarding the 3 pt line which could become an issue for both teams considering the 3 pt shooters that will be on the floor for both teams (Farmar, Affalo, Humphrey, Green and Corey Brewer). Even though UCLA has played some of the best defense I've seen a long time from a college team I believe Florida has some advantages that LSU and Memphis did not have against UCLA. First, like mentioned before, Florida does like to run but they have two big men who can handle the ball in Noah and Horford and they run better half court sets than does Memphis. Secondly, Florida is not doomed like LSU if they can not establish their big men early. They have 3 players who can step out and consistently hit big shots unlike LSU who only had one primary 3 point shooter. We have seen in past years that 3 point shooters who get hot can make a huge difference in a title game (anyone remember Gerry McNamara when 'Cuse won their national title a few years ago??). With that said my pick is

PICK: FLORIDA -1

NBA: Sunday April 2

So, LSU, AHHHHHH!!!!!! now that I got that out I can clear my head and make some winning picks for the night.

Last 2 nights: 2-2 (2-2 ATS)
Overall: 8-10, .444 (7-10 ATS)(1-0 O/U)

L.A.C vs. Sac
Line: Sac -3.5
O/U:196
Pick:Under 196

Final Four

Games:
Florida -6 vs. George Mason
UCLA +2 vs. LSU

Picks:
Florida -6
LSU -2

NBA: Wednesday March 29

Last night: 0-1 ATS
1-0 O/U

Record YTD: (5-8) ATS
(1-0) O/U


Tonight's Picks:
Dal +2 vs. Cleveland

Pick: Dallas

Since the game starts soon, I won't have an extensive writeup. However Dallas came off a tough loss to Detroit last night and they have only lost back to back games once this season. Their losses came to the Bucks in OT and then to San Antonio.


Because I'm lazy and don't feel like writing stuff up I'll give my last pick for the night
Detroit vs. Philadelphia
Line: Philadelphia +4
Pick:Detroit

Detroit has beaten Philly 4 times in a row including a 2-1-1 record against the spread, the only spread they did not cover was an 11 pt spread at Philly.

NBA: Tuesday March 28

Because of the plethora of NCAA action in the past 4 days or so, I haven't had a chance to look over any NBA action. Tonight they're are a slew of good games to look at, including a potential Finals matchup between Dallas and Detroit at Auburn Hills.

Record YTD: 5-7 (ATS)

Tonight's Picks:
Dallas (54-16) (34-34-2 ATS) vs. Detroit (55-14)(32-35-2 ATS)
Line: Detroit -5.5
O/U: 179.5

It will be interesting to see how Flip Saunders plays his starters the rest of the season. His bench is very thin and although his starting 5 have been together so long, one starts to wonder how much fatigue is playing a part in their play lately.

Last 5:
Detroit (1-3-1 ATS)
Dallas (3-2 ATS)

Dallas isn't the team of old that people remember, with Avery Johnson at the helm they now play good team defense and even Dirk Nowitzki is becoming a solid one on one defender. Their defensive effort cannot only be seen on the court but also seen in defensive stats.

I'm not really a big fan of points against in a game because it really isn't too indicative of how a team is playing defense. Teams like Dallas may let up more points because of the tempo and the pace of the game.

For instance, Detroit the last 5 games has only let up 82.2 points a game compared to Dallas 94.2. However, that number doesn't really reflect how well Dallas's defense is actually playing. Detroit usually takes long possessions and trys to get the best shot out of each possession. While Dallas may run out in transition more or get quick shots with Nowitzki or Terry. When looking at opponents FG%, Dallas is actually beating Detroit 42.6 % to 43.1%. Whereas Detroit may limit possessions on the offensive end therefore doing it on the defensive end, Dallas is actually more active in their defense.

Although one may see that the points against number is distorted, it is also helpful to look at their margins in points scored vs. points against. Overall for the season Detroit has an average margin of 10.5 pts compared to Dallas's 3.2 pts. However as the season has worn on, one can see that Dallas' youth and deeper bench may play a bigger part in their defensive efforts. Over the last 5 games Detroit's margin has shrunk to 3.8 pts while Dallas has increased theirs to 5.8 pts.

Dallas has stepped up defensive pressure as the season has gone on while Detroit is starting to look more and more like a vulnerable team.

Pick: Dallas +5.5

Phoenix (47-22)(37-31-1 ATS) vs. Milwaukee (35-35)(34-35-1 ATS)
Line: Milwaukee +6
O/U: 215.5

Phoenix's record has been 1-4 on the road the past 5 games including a 72-110 beatdown by the New Jersey Nets. They have also seen a considerable drop in their FG% during the last 5 games, this drop in FG% can be attributed to the Suns integration of Amare Stoudemire and Tim Thomas into the offense. However, Stoudemire should not be in the lineup tonight and Nash barely played half the game last night because of the blowout.

For the season PHX is averaging about 108 points while Mil is averaging about 97. Both teams also have let up a high percentage of shots also, PHX has been horrendous over the past 5 games letting up 48.3% of their opponents FG's including an absolute horrible 44.4% from the 3 pt line.

The over has hit in 4 of the last 5 meetings while Phx has covered 3 of those times. Including a recent meeting in PHX (PHX 123- Mil 110, PHX -9.5/211) on the first of March.

Steve Nash will be back to MVP form tonight as PHX will exact revenge on the Bucks after their humiliating loss to NJ.

Pick: Over 215.5

NCAA Tournament: Final Four and other musings

Well we have come to this point the Final Four, and no matter what anyone predicted, I'm sure few have picked the combination of George Mason, Florida, LSU and UCLA. It will be fun to see some new players emerge such as Glen Davis of LSU and Tony Skinn of George Mason instead of the usual tiresome pieces about Rudy Gay, Adam Morrison and J.J. Redick.

Last Night: 1-1
YTD:5-7

Based on play, these are how I rank the final 4 teams.

1. LSU
2. Florida
3. UCLA
4. George Mason

The tournament is still wide open however and you can no longer count out George Mason as they have beaten 3 former National Champions (Michigan St, UNC and UConn). I believe LSU has such a big advantage though because of their front court, Davis, Mitchell and Thomas are so talented but even more surprising is that they are passionate. (Unlike UConn's stars who walk through games)

Elite Eight: Sunday

J.J. Redick, say hello to the hottest team in America.




Last night: 1-1
YTD: (4-6)

George Mason (11) vs. UConn (1)
George Mason ATS: 18-9-2 (3-0 NCAA Tournament)
UConn ATS: 14-14-0 (0-3 NCAA Tournament)
Line: UConn -8
Pick: George Mason

I cannot take UConn anymore they are killing me. They are 0-3 covering in the NCAA tournament, have yet to show a killer instinct and always seem to play down to their competition. Although George Mason is a #11 seed, they will give UConn trouble with their trapping and harassing D. This might mean trouble for UConn who most of the time only has one primary ballhandler on the court ( Marcus Williams), Calhoun is going to have to get some quality PT out of Craig Austrie and hope that his frontline actually shows up today.



Florida (3) vs. Villanova (1)
Florida ATS: 18-11-1 ATS (3-0 NCAA tournament)
Villanova ATS: 13-15-0 (0-3 NCAA tournament)
Line: Villanova -2
Pick:Villanova

Villanova has too much expierience and the game Florida plays meshes well with their style. Because Villanova can score with so many different guards it will be hard for Florida to match them point for point.

Elite Eight: Saturday

I went a spectacular 1-3 last night, so maybe you just want to take the opposite of what I'm taking, haha.

Last night : 1-3
YTD: 3-5

Since the LSU game starts in about 20 minutes I am just going to make picks today

Texas -3
UCLA +3

Good Luck! I'll actually have writeups for tommorrows games

Sweet Sixteen: Friday

Last night was incredible. UCLA coming back from 17 down, Texas nailing a 3 pointer as time was expiring, the #1 overall seed Duke losing. We also got the pleasure of watching Adam Morrison cry before the game was over.
I already broke down the D.C. region a few days ago, you can look at my breakdown in the previous post.
George Mason -2 vs. Wichita State
Pick: George Mason

UConn -6.5 vs. Washington
Pick: UConn

and because the games are starting in about an hour I will do a quick breakdown.

Villanova vs. Boston College
Line: Villanova -2.5
Pick: Villanova

Much like WVU, Villanova relies alot on the three because of their lack of an inside scorer. Unlike WVU however, Villanova has athletes that can also create their own shots and drive to the basket. 'Nova will have to be very active on the defensive end and will have to look for turnovers and oppurtunites to push the ball because of their deficiency in the rebounding column. Former Big East team Boston College will not be easy however, their frontline will try to punish 'Nova from the beginning and look for them to dominate the boards. It will be interesting to see how far Al Skinner (BC) chooses to pack in his defense, usually BC packs their D in pretty tight but that might be fatal against a team of Villanova's calibur.

Florida vs. Georgetown
Line: Florida -3
Pick: Georgetown

It may be that I think the SEC stinks or I overvalue the Big East. Tonight's game is no different, although Florida has run over the SEC ( including beating LSU twice) I still think their half court D is suspect. Georgetown has kept opponents in their first two games to 38% FG and relies on its tough defense. Watching Noah and Hibbert inside will be fun, Georgetown is going to need contributions from more than 4 players on the offensive side to be able to cover this time.

Sweet Sixteen: Thursday Recap

Last night's record: 2-2
YTD: 2-2
Recap:
Duke -6 vs. LSU
Score: LSU 62 Duke 54
Pick: Duke
Result: L

Hindsight is always 20/20 and that holds true with sports betting too. I pretty much argued in the "things to look for" that LSU had alot of advantages that they could exploit and for some reason I still picked Duke.

UCLA -3.5 vs. Gonzaga
Score: UCLA 73 Gonzaga 71
Pick: UCLA
Result: L

I think midway into the second half I finally admitted to myself that UCLA wasn't going to cover. Those things happen when a team shoots an abysmal 40% from the field for the game and less than 30% in the first half. After I came to the terms I was losing the game, my mood instantly changed realizing that I saw Adam Morrison and J.J. Redick cry in the same night.

Texas -5 vs. WVU
Score: Texas 74 WVU 71
Pick: WVU
Result: W

The three pointed is a marvelous thing, even though Texas dominated the boards and pretty much the entire game, WVU almost won. The three pointer is what enabled WVU to stay in the game and cover, I was even wondering during the middle of the first half if WVU was even going to hit a 2 pointer during the game.

Memphis -6.5 vs. Bradley
Score: Memphis 80 Bradley 64
Pick: Memphis
Result: W

This by far was the easiest game to pick. Wins over Pittsburgh and Kansas may have skewed people's views on Bradley thus leading them to be overvalued.

Sweet Sixteen: Thursday

I know my picks generally have gone towards the favorite and tonight is no exception, I have to go to work soon so I can't really write too much so here are my quick picks.


UCLA vs. Gonzaga
Line: UCLA -3.5
Pick: UCLA

Gonzaga has looked more and more worn down towards the end of the season, plus Adam Morrison has yet to see a defense as active and dedicated as UCLA's. With that said UCLA wins by 5+ and Jordan Farmar has a good night shooting.

Memphis vs. Bradley
Line:Memphis -6.5
Pick: Memphis

Unfortunately I watched Bradley beat Pitt, however, this time I don't think they are going to creep up on a team. Patrick O'Bryant is a nice player on the inside but the talent and athletisim of Memphis will be too much for Bradley to handle during a full game.

Sweet Sixteen: D.C.

D.C.- D.C. features one of the tournament favorites in UConn and also features two mid-majors in George Mason and Wichita State. Because of the West Coast bias, not many people have been able to see what Washington has done this season. All the Huskies have done is beat Gongaza and UCLA twice en route to a 2nd place finish in the Pac-10 this season.

(1) UConn vs. (5) Washington

How they got here
UConn: wins vs. (16) Albany 72-59 and (8) Kentucky 87-83
Washington: wins vs. (12) Utah State 75-61 and (4) Illinois 67-64

Things to look for:
Marcus Williams - the PG from UConn has never seen the spotlight because of star players Rudy Gay, Josh Boone and Hilton Armstrong and while many people see him as maybe one of the best distributors in the college game today it has become apparent that Williams is the Huskies man during crunch time. His numbers the past two games cannot be more clear (21 pts 8 asts and 20 pts 8 asts) more importantly is his ability to drive the ball at the basket to create for himself or teammates when it matters most.

Rebounding- Although Washington led the Pac-10 in rebounding margin this season the same cannot be said of their work on the glass so far during the tournament. Both games so far they have been out rebounded, the effort was clearing lacking against Utah State as they got pounded on the boards 32-19. They will have to work their hardest against UConn's tall and athletic frontline. They will have to be careful how aggresive they are going for offensive glass because UConn is very good at scoring in transition.

Scoring - Brandon Roy maybe one of the most unappreciated players in the nation has been the main scoring source for the Huskies for the regular season and also during their 2 games in the tournament. Besides Roy none of the Huskies has really stepped up with their output in the first two rounds. Freshman G Justin Dentmon is the only other Washington player to hit double figures in both NCAA games, one of the other Washington starters will have assert himself more at the offensive end in order to give Washington a chance.

Line: UConn -6.5
UConn ATS- 14-13-0 (0-2 NCAA tournament)
Washington ATS- 15-15-0 (2-0 NCAA tournament)

Pick - UCONN
Jim Calhoun recently said that UConn has its "swagger" back, that can only mean bad things for the rest of the field. Although Washington has covered in both of their previous games, their lack of complementary scorer to Brandon Roy really hurts them. Whereas UConn can realistically get double digit outputs from 6-7 different players. Washington will not be able to play inside with UConn's forwards, UConn has yet to play a dominate game in the tournament and this is a perfect matchup for them to make a statement.

(7) Wichita State vs. (11) George Mason

How they got here:
Wichita State: wins vs. (10) Seton Hall 86-66 and (2) Tennessee 80-73
George Mason: wins vs. (6) Michigan State 75-65 and (3) UNC 65-60

Things to look for:
Homecourt advantage- I thought UConn was the #1 seed in the bracket?? I am not accusing the NCAA selection committee of looking past teams but I don't think many people saw George Mason beating perennial powerhouses Mich. St and UNC. Like a surreal dream George Mason is pretty much playing in their backyard for the round of 16.

Mid-Major Madness- In previous years any mid-major team that made it to the round of 16 would have the unlucky fate of playing one of the big boys from one of the nation's premiere conferences. However because of the rising parity in college basketball two mid major teams have finally made it to the second weekend for a chance to play in the elite 8.

Line: George Mason -2
George Mason ATS - 17-9-2 (2-0 NCAA tournament)
Wichita State ATS - 15-13-1 (2-0 NCAA tournament)

Pick - George Mason
I will be honest and tell you I really do not know too much about both of these mid major teams. That said, I believe with George Mason playing at home basically and the fact that they beat Wichita St. @ the Shockers arena earlier in the year justifys the pick. Wichita St. deserves credit for the games they won, although Seton Hall was probably the Big East's weakest selection and Bruce Pearl's kids started to look fatigued because of the high tempo game they play. George Mason took a much tougher path beating Final Four regulars Michigan St. and the defending National Champs in North Carolina.

Sweet Sixteen: Atlanta

Well because it's too late for me to make picks for games tonight I have decided to breakdown the Sweet Sixteen by region, looking at the possible contenders and identifying the pretenders for the national championship ( Sorry MVC, you are in the latter).

Atlanta: When looking at the Atlanta bracket it appears it will produce the best tandem of games compared to the other regions. 3 of the teams in the region were mentioned at the beginning of the season as national title contenders: Duke, Texas and West Virginia. While all three of these teams can lie claim to title aspirations LSU cannot be brushed aside, their combination of Glen "Big Baby" Davis and freshman phenom Tyrus Thomas is as formidable as any in the country.

(1) Duke vs. (4) LSU

How they got here
Duke: wins vs (16) Southern 70-54 and (8) GW 74-61
LSU: wins vs (13) Iona 80-64 and (12) Texas A&M 58-57

Things to Look For:
LSU's forwards - Duke has to be concerned about LSU's BIG and talented front line, it will be interesting to see who has the assignment of covering Glen Davis at the beginning of the game, Coach K might want to keep freshman Josh McRoberts on the SEC player of the year so Shelden Williams doesn't get into foul trouble early on. Just as intriguing to see will be who draws the assignment of Tyrus Thomas, Redick is not athletic enough to cover him man to man and if Williams covers him Thomas can step outside and stroke the outside twine nullifying Williams shot blocking ability.

J.J. Redick- Redick hasn't exactly been "Mr. March" (unlike our friend A-Rod) and has been bearing the burden of scoring alot of the Dukies point during the regular season. Redick even went an unheard of 2-7 from the FT line Saturday against GW and although he went 50% from the field, it makes you wonder how much he has left in his tank for the stretch run.

Depth - Both teams don't have the luxury of having a deep bench, LSU goes 7 to 8 deep but they do have the best player coming off either bench, Tyrus Thomas. Coach K mainly sticks with a 7 man rotation he utilizes Demarcus Nelson as another guard and energy guy Lee Melchionni who can hit from outside when called upon.

Line: Duke -6
Duke ATS - 14-18-1 (1-1 NCAA tournament)
LSU ATS - 13-14-2 (1-1 NCAA tournament)

Pick- Duke
The backcourt of Greg Paulus and J.J. Redick will be too much for LSU to match. Duke has to cutdown on turnovers and the turnover prone LSU has done a good job of protecting the ball so far. Glen Davis will get his points inside but the outside shooting of Redick along with the expierience of Duke helps them take control of this game.

(2) Texas vs. (6) West Virginia

How they got here
Texas: wins vs (15)UPenn 60-52 and (10) N.C. State 75-54
West Virginia: wins vs (11) Southern Illinois 64-46 and (14) Northwestern State 67-54

Things to look for:
1-3-1 Zone- West Virginia plays a very unique style of zone, the 1-3-1, with this zone they always have a guard running the baseline looking for steals or to pressure outside shooters. Most teams in the tournament have a hard time adjusting to this defense because it's not used commonly. Texas does have a slight advantage because of a previous meeting earlier in the season where they won 76-75 at Austin.

What team will show up? - With Texas it is hard to predict what you are going to get on any given night, they have the NBA talent (Aldridge, Tucker and Gibson) it's just a question of whether or not they will show up and play. Early season losses to Duke and the already discarded Tennessee raised some eyebrows but Texas righted its ship and after their 75-54 trashing of N.C. State, it finally looks like Texas may be living up to expectations.

Free Throws- West Virginia who shoots around 75% from the line shot an unusual 8-12 (67%) at Texas during their meeting in November. The usually reliable Kevin Pittsnogle (86%) and Johannes Herber (80%) both missed front ends of 1 and 1's that could have prevented Lamarcus Aldridge's last second tip-in for the win.

Line: Texas -5
Texas ATS - 14-15-1 (1-1 NCAA tournament)
West Virginia - 14-14-2 (2-0 NCAA tournament)

Pick- West Virginia
Texas is so inconsistent that it is baffling how they get down in games and can go so long without scoring. They also lack a true PG which will hurt them against the 1-3-1 zone. While West Virginia does not have the athletes to match up with Texas their cutting offense will give Texas problems. The outside shooting from Gansey, Pittsnogle, Beilein and company will make the difference in the end.

Welcome!

hi, my name is Drew I am a 21 year old male from Monroeville, PA and I am currently a student at the University of Pittsburgh studying Finance and Accounting. However my main passion is not school (how surprising!) and like many males it revolves around sports. Being so close to a great sports town in Pittsburgh has enabled me to witness 3 quality professional sports teams, championships for two of them (Penguins and Steelers) and the re-emergence of the Pittsburgh Panthers basketball and football programs. My interests do not just stop with Pittsburgh sports team, I am an avid fan of pretty much all sports.

With this website I hope to use and apply my knowledge and analysis of sports, by providing daily picks, I hope to be pretty consistent by providing about 3 a day (baseball might be a bit rocky, i've never handicapped it. I will also not touch hockey.) Usually basketball and football but sometimes I might venture out to make more picks. With the picks I will use writeups to justify their merit, not only will I include my own opinion but also links might be used to help support my evidence, also stats will help support and shape my opinion. I will also keep write occasional opinion pieces on subjects that I find worthy to read about.

My personal interests include shoe collecting, playing basketball, playing guitar, listening to music

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