Last night: 0-1 ATS
1-0 O/U
Record YTD: (5-8) ATS
(1-0) O/U
Tonight's Picks:
Dal +2 vs. Cleveland
Pick: Dallas
Since the game starts soon, I won't have an extensive writeup. However Dallas came off a tough loss to Detroit last night and they have only lost back to back games once this season. Their losses came to the Bucks in OT and then to San Antonio.
Because I'm lazy and don't feel like writing stuff up I'll give my last pick for the night
Detroit vs. Philadelphia
Line: Philadelphia +4
Pick:Detroit
Detroit has beaten Philly 4 times in a row including a 2-1-1 record against the spread, the only spread they did not cover was an 11 pt spread at Philly.
Wednesday, March 29, 2006
Tuesday, March 28, 2006
NBA: Tuesday March 28
Because of the plethora of NCAA action in the past 4 days or so, I haven't had a chance to look over any NBA action. Tonight they're are a slew of good games to look at, including a potential Finals matchup between Dallas and Detroit at Auburn Hills.
Record YTD: 5-7 (ATS)
Tonight's Picks:
Dallas (54-16) (34-34-2 ATS) vs. Detroit (55-14)(32-35-2 ATS)
Line: Detroit -5.5
O/U: 179.5
It will be interesting to see how Flip Saunders plays his starters the rest of the season. His bench is very thin and although his starting 5 have been together so long, one starts to wonder how much fatigue is playing a part in their play lately.
Last 5:
Detroit (1-3-1 ATS)
Dallas (3-2 ATS)
Dallas isn't the team of old that people remember, with Avery Johnson at the helm they now play good team defense and even Dirk Nowitzki is becoming a solid one on one defender. Their defensive effort cannot only be seen on the court but also seen in defensive stats.
I'm not really a big fan of points against in a game because it really isn't too indicative of how a team is playing defense. Teams like Dallas may let up more points because of the tempo and the pace of the game.
For instance, Detroit the last 5 games has only let up 82.2 points a game compared to Dallas 94.2. However, that number doesn't really reflect how well Dallas's defense is actually playing. Detroit usually takes long possessions and trys to get the best shot out of each possession. While Dallas may run out in transition more or get quick shots with Nowitzki or Terry. When looking at opponents FG%, Dallas is actually beating Detroit 42.6 % to 43.1%. Whereas Detroit may limit possessions on the offensive end therefore doing it on the defensive end, Dallas is actually more active in their defense.
Although one may see that the points against number is distorted, it is also helpful to look at their margins in points scored vs. points against. Overall for the season Detroit has an average margin of 10.5 pts compared to Dallas's 3.2 pts. However as the season has worn on, one can see that Dallas' youth and deeper bench may play a bigger part in their defensive efforts. Over the last 5 games Detroit's margin has shrunk to 3.8 pts while Dallas has increased theirs to 5.8 pts.
Dallas has stepped up defensive pressure as the season has gone on while Detroit is starting to look more and more like a vulnerable team.
Pick: Dallas +5.5
Phoenix (47-22)(37-31-1 ATS) vs. Milwaukee (35-35)(34-35-1 ATS)
Line: Milwaukee +6
O/U: 215.5
Phoenix's record has been 1-4 on the road the past 5 games including a 72-110 beatdown by the New Jersey Nets. They have also seen a considerable drop in their FG% during the last 5 games, this drop in FG% can be attributed to the Suns integration of Amare Stoudemire and Tim Thomas into the offense. However, Stoudemire should not be in the lineup tonight and Nash barely played half the game last night because of the blowout.
For the season PHX is averaging about 108 points while Mil is averaging about 97. Both teams also have let up a high percentage of shots also, PHX has been horrendous over the past 5 games letting up 48.3% of their opponents FG's including an absolute horrible 44.4% from the 3 pt line.
The over has hit in 4 of the last 5 meetings while Phx has covered 3 of those times. Including a recent meeting in PHX (PHX 123- Mil 110, PHX -9.5/211) on the first of March.
Steve Nash will be back to MVP form tonight as PHX will exact revenge on the Bucks after their humiliating loss to NJ.
Pick: Over 215.5
Record YTD: 5-7 (ATS)
Tonight's Picks:
Dallas (54-16) (34-34-2 ATS) vs. Detroit (55-14)(32-35-2 ATS)
Line: Detroit -5.5
O/U: 179.5
It will be interesting to see how Flip Saunders plays his starters the rest of the season. His bench is very thin and although his starting 5 have been together so long, one starts to wonder how much fatigue is playing a part in their play lately.
Last 5:
Detroit (1-3-1 ATS)
Dallas (3-2 ATS)
Dallas isn't the team of old that people remember, with Avery Johnson at the helm they now play good team defense and even Dirk Nowitzki is becoming a solid one on one defender. Their defensive effort cannot only be seen on the court but also seen in defensive stats.
I'm not really a big fan of points against in a game because it really isn't too indicative of how a team is playing defense. Teams like Dallas may let up more points because of the tempo and the pace of the game.
For instance, Detroit the last 5 games has only let up 82.2 points a game compared to Dallas 94.2. However, that number doesn't really reflect how well Dallas's defense is actually playing. Detroit usually takes long possessions and trys to get the best shot out of each possession. While Dallas may run out in transition more or get quick shots with Nowitzki or Terry. When looking at opponents FG%, Dallas is actually beating Detroit 42.6 % to 43.1%. Whereas Detroit may limit possessions on the offensive end therefore doing it on the defensive end, Dallas is actually more active in their defense.
Although one may see that the points against number is distorted, it is also helpful to look at their margins in points scored vs. points against. Overall for the season Detroit has an average margin of 10.5 pts compared to Dallas's 3.2 pts. However as the season has worn on, one can see that Dallas' youth and deeper bench may play a bigger part in their defensive efforts. Over the last 5 games Detroit's margin has shrunk to 3.8 pts while Dallas has increased theirs to 5.8 pts.
Dallas has stepped up defensive pressure as the season has gone on while Detroit is starting to look more and more like a vulnerable team.
Pick: Dallas +5.5
Phoenix (47-22)(37-31-1 ATS) vs. Milwaukee (35-35)(34-35-1 ATS)
Line: Milwaukee +6
O/U: 215.5
Phoenix's record has been 1-4 on the road the past 5 games including a 72-110 beatdown by the New Jersey Nets. They have also seen a considerable drop in their FG% during the last 5 games, this drop in FG% can be attributed to the Suns integration of Amare Stoudemire and Tim Thomas into the offense. However, Stoudemire should not be in the lineup tonight and Nash barely played half the game last night because of the blowout.
For the season PHX is averaging about 108 points while Mil is averaging about 97. Both teams also have let up a high percentage of shots also, PHX has been horrendous over the past 5 games letting up 48.3% of their opponents FG's including an absolute horrible 44.4% from the 3 pt line.
The over has hit in 4 of the last 5 meetings while Phx has covered 3 of those times. Including a recent meeting in PHX (PHX 123- Mil 110, PHX -9.5/211) on the first of March.
Steve Nash will be back to MVP form tonight as PHX will exact revenge on the Bucks after their humiliating loss to NJ.
Pick: Over 215.5
Monday, March 27, 2006
NCAA Tournament: Final Four and other musings
Well we have come to this point the Final Four, and no matter what anyone predicted, I'm sure few have picked the combination of George Mason, Florida, LSU and UCLA. It will be fun to see some new players emerge such as Glen Davis of LSU and Tony Skinn of George Mason instead of the usual tiresome pieces about Rudy Gay, Adam Morrison and J.J. Redick.
Last Night: 1-1
YTD:5-7
Based on play, these are how I rank the final 4 teams.
1. LSU
2. Florida
3. UCLA
4. George Mason
The tournament is still wide open however and you can no longer count out George Mason as they have beaten 3 former National Champions (Michigan St, UNC and UConn). I believe LSU has such a big advantage though because of their front court, Davis, Mitchell and Thomas are so talented but even more surprising is that they are passionate. (Unlike UConn's stars who walk through games)
Last Night: 1-1
YTD:5-7
Based on play, these are how I rank the final 4 teams.
1. LSU
2. Florida
3. UCLA
4. George Mason
The tournament is still wide open however and you can no longer count out George Mason as they have beaten 3 former National Champions (Michigan St, UNC and UConn). I believe LSU has such a big advantage though because of their front court, Davis, Mitchell and Thomas are so talented but even more surprising is that they are passionate. (Unlike UConn's stars who walk through games)
Sunday, March 26, 2006
Elite Eight: Sunday
J.J. Redick, say hello to the hottest team in America.Last night: 1-1
YTD: (4-6)
George Mason (11) vs. UConn (1)
George Mason ATS: 18-9-2 (3-0 NCAA Tournament)
UConn ATS: 14-14-0 (0-3 NCAA Tournament)
Line: UConn -8
Pick: George Mason
I cannot take UConn anymore they are killing me. They are 0-3 covering in the NCAA tournament, have yet to show a killer instinct and always seem to play down to their competition. Although George Mason is a #11 seed, they will give UConn trouble with their trapping and harassing D. This might mean trouble for UConn who most of the time only has one primary ballhandler on the court ( Marcus Williams), Calhoun is going to have to get some quality PT out of Craig Austrie and hope that his frontline actually shows up today.
Florida (3) vs. Villanova (1)
Florida ATS: 18-11-1 ATS (3-0 NCAA tournament)
Villanova ATS: 13-15-0 (0-3 NCAA tournament)
Line: Villanova -2
Pick:Villanova
Villanova has too much expierience and the game Florida plays meshes well with their style. Because Villanova can score with so many different guards it will be hard for Florida to match them point for point.
Saturday, March 25, 2006
Elite Eight: Saturday
I went a spectacular 1-3 last night, so maybe you just want to take the opposite of what I'm taking, haha.
Last night : 1-3
YTD: 3-5
Since the LSU game starts in about 20 minutes I am just going to make picks today
Texas -3
UCLA +3
Good Luck! I'll actually have writeups for tommorrows games
Last night : 1-3
YTD: 3-5
Since the LSU game starts in about 20 minutes I am just going to make picks today
Texas -3
UCLA +3
Good Luck! I'll actually have writeups for tommorrows games
Friday, March 24, 2006
Sweet Sixteen: Friday
Last night was incredible. UCLA coming back from 17 down, Texas nailing a 3 pointer as time was expiring, the #1 overall seed Duke losing. We also got the pleasure of watching Adam Morrison cry before the game was over. 
I already broke down the D.C. region a few days ago, you can look at my breakdown in the previous post.
George Mason -2 vs. Wichita State
Pick: George Mason
UConn -6.5 vs. Washington
Pick: UConn
and because the games are starting in about an hour I will do a quick breakdown.
Villanova vs. Boston College
Line: Villanova -2.5
Pick: Villanova
Much like WVU, Villanova relies alot on the three because of their lack of an inside scorer. Unlike WVU however, Villanova has athletes that can also create their own shots and drive to the basket. 'Nova will have to be very active on the defensive end and will have to look for turnovers and oppurtunites to push the ball because of their deficiency in the rebounding column. Former Big East team Boston College will not be easy however, their frontline will try to punish 'Nova from the beginning and look for them to dominate the boards. It will be interesting to see how far Al Skinner (BC) chooses to pack in his defense, usually BC packs their D in pretty tight but that might be fatal against a team of Villanova's calibur.
Florida vs. Georgetown
Line: Florida -3
Pick: Georgetown
It may be that I think the SEC stinks or I overvalue the Big East. Tonight's game is no different, although Florida has run over the SEC ( including beating LSU twice) I still think their half court D is suspect. Georgetown has kept opponents in their first two games to 38% FG and relies on its tough defense. Watching Noah and Hibbert inside will be fun, Georgetown is going to need contributions from more than 4 players on the offensive side to be able to cover this time.
I already broke down the D.C. region a few days ago, you can look at my breakdown in the previous post.
George Mason -2 vs. Wichita State
Pick: George Mason
UConn -6.5 vs. Washington
Pick: UConn
and because the games are starting in about an hour I will do a quick breakdown.
Villanova vs. Boston College
Line: Villanova -2.5
Pick: Villanova
Much like WVU, Villanova relies alot on the three because of their lack of an inside scorer. Unlike WVU however, Villanova has athletes that can also create their own shots and drive to the basket. 'Nova will have to be very active on the defensive end and will have to look for turnovers and oppurtunites to push the ball because of their deficiency in the rebounding column. Former Big East team Boston College will not be easy however, their frontline will try to punish 'Nova from the beginning and look for them to dominate the boards. It will be interesting to see how far Al Skinner (BC) chooses to pack in his defense, usually BC packs their D in pretty tight but that might be fatal against a team of Villanova's calibur.
Florida vs. Georgetown
Line: Florida -3
Pick: Georgetown
It may be that I think the SEC stinks or I overvalue the Big East. Tonight's game is no different, although Florida has run over the SEC ( including beating LSU twice) I still think their half court D is suspect. Georgetown has kept opponents in their first two games to 38% FG and relies on its tough defense. Watching Noah and Hibbert inside will be fun, Georgetown is going to need contributions from more than 4 players on the offensive side to be able to cover this time.
Sweet Sixteen: Thursday Recap
Last night's record: 2-2
YTD: 2-2
Recap:
Duke -6 vs. LSU
Score: LSU 62 Duke 54
Pick: Duke
Result: L
Hindsight is always 20/20 and that holds true with sports betting too. I pretty much argued in the "things to look for" that LSU had alot of advantages that they could exploit and for some reason I still picked Duke.
UCLA -3.5 vs. Gonzaga
Score: UCLA 73 Gonzaga 71
Pick: UCLA
Result: L
I think midway into the second half I finally admitted to myself that UCLA wasn't going to cover. Those things happen when a team shoots an abysmal 40% from the field for the game and less than 30% in the first half. After I came to the terms I was losing the game, my mood instantly changed realizing that I saw Adam Morrison and J.J. Redick cry in the same night.
Texas -5 vs. WVU
Score: Texas 74 WVU 71
Pick: WVU
Result: W
The three pointed is a marvelous thing, even though Texas dominated the boards and pretty much the entire game, WVU almost won. The three pointer is what enabled WVU to stay in the game and cover, I was even wondering during the middle of the first half if WVU was even going to hit a 2 pointer during the game.
Memphis -6.5 vs. Bradley
Score: Memphis 80 Bradley 64
Pick: Memphis
Result: W
This by far was the easiest game to pick. Wins over Pittsburgh and Kansas may have skewed people's views on Bradley thus leading them to be overvalued.
YTD: 2-2
Recap:
Duke -6 vs. LSU
Score: LSU 62 Duke 54
Pick: Duke
Result: L
Hindsight is always 20/20 and that holds true with sports betting too. I pretty much argued in the "things to look for" that LSU had alot of advantages that they could exploit and for some reason I still picked Duke.
UCLA -3.5 vs. Gonzaga
Score: UCLA 73 Gonzaga 71
Pick: UCLA
Result: L
I think midway into the second half I finally admitted to myself that UCLA wasn't going to cover. Those things happen when a team shoots an abysmal 40% from the field for the game and less than 30% in the first half. After I came to the terms I was losing the game, my mood instantly changed realizing that I saw Adam Morrison and J.J. Redick cry in the same night.
Texas -5 vs. WVU
Score: Texas 74 WVU 71
Pick: WVU
Result: W
The three pointed is a marvelous thing, even though Texas dominated the boards and pretty much the entire game, WVU almost won. The three pointer is what enabled WVU to stay in the game and cover, I was even wondering during the middle of the first half if WVU was even going to hit a 2 pointer during the game.
Memphis -6.5 vs. Bradley
Score: Memphis 80 Bradley 64
Pick: Memphis
Result: W
This by far was the easiest game to pick. Wins over Pittsburgh and Kansas may have skewed people's views on Bradley thus leading them to be overvalued.
Thursday, March 23, 2006
Sweet Sixteen: Thursday
I know my picks generally have gone towards the favorite and tonight is no exception, I have to go to work soon so I can't really write too much so here are my quick picks.
UCLA vs. Gonzaga
Line: UCLA -3.5
Pick: UCLA
Gonzaga has looked more and more worn down towards the end of the season, plus Adam Morrison has yet to see a defense as active and dedicated as UCLA's. With that said UCLA wins by 5+ and Jordan Farmar has a good night shooting.
Memphis vs. Bradley
Line:Memphis -6.5
Pick: Memphis
Unfortunately I watched Bradley beat Pitt, however, this time I don't think they are going to creep up on a team. Patrick O'Bryant is a nice player on the inside but the talent and athletisim of Memphis will be too much for Bradley to handle during a full game.
UCLA vs. Gonzaga
Line: UCLA -3.5
Pick: UCLA
Gonzaga has looked more and more worn down towards the end of the season, plus Adam Morrison has yet to see a defense as active and dedicated as UCLA's. With that said UCLA wins by 5+ and Jordan Farmar has a good night shooting.
Memphis vs. Bradley
Line:Memphis -6.5
Pick: Memphis
Unfortunately I watched Bradley beat Pitt, however, this time I don't think they are going to creep up on a team. Patrick O'Bryant is a nice player on the inside but the talent and athletisim of Memphis will be too much for Bradley to handle during a full game.
Wednesday, March 22, 2006
Sweet Sixteen: D.C.
D.C.- D.C. features one of the tournament favorites in UConn and also features two mid-majors in George Mason and Wichita State. Because of the West Coast bias, not many people have been able to see what Washington has done this season. All the Huskies have done is beat Gongaza and UCLA twice en route to a 2nd place finish in the Pac-10 this season.
(1) UConn vs. (5) Washington
How they got here
UConn: wins vs. (16) Albany 72-59 and (8) Kentucky 87-83
Washington: wins vs. (12) Utah State 75-61 and (4) Illinois 67-64
Things to look for:
Marcus Williams - the PG from UConn has never seen the spotlight because of star players Rudy Gay, Josh Boone and Hilton Armstrong and while many people see him as maybe one of the best distributors in the college game today it has become apparent that Williams is the Huskies man during crunch time. His numbers the past two games cannot be more clear (21 pts 8 asts and 20 pts 8 asts) more importantly is his ability to drive the ball at the basket to create for himself or teammates when it matters most.
Rebounding- Although Washington led the Pac-10 in rebounding margin this season the same cannot be said of their work on the glass so far during the tournament. Both games so far they have been out rebounded, the effort was clearing lacking against Utah State as they got pounded on the boards 32-19. They will have to work their hardest against UConn's tall and athletic frontline. They will have to be careful how aggresive they are going for offensive glass because UConn is very good at scoring in transition.
Scoring - Brandon Roy maybe one of the most unappreciated players in the nation has been the main scoring source for the Huskies for the regular season and also during their 2 games in the tournament. Besides Roy none of the Huskies has really stepped up with their output in the first two rounds. Freshman G Justin Dentmon is the only other Washington player to hit double figures in both NCAA games, one of the other Washington starters will have assert himself more at the offensive end in order to give Washington a chance.
Line: UConn -6.5
UConn ATS- 14-13-0 (0-2 NCAA tournament)
Washington ATS- 15-15-0 (2-0 NCAA tournament)
Pick - UCONN
Jim Calhoun recently said that UConn has its "swagger" back, that can only mean bad things for the rest of the field. Although Washington has covered in both of their previous games, their lack of complementary scorer to Brandon Roy really hurts them. Whereas UConn can realistically get double digit outputs from 6-7 different players. Washington will not be able to play inside with UConn's forwards, UConn has yet to play a dominate game in the tournament and this is a perfect matchup for them to make a statement.
(7) Wichita State vs. (11) George Mason
How they got here:
Wichita State: wins vs. (10) Seton Hall 86-66 and (2) Tennessee 80-73
George Mason: wins vs. (6) Michigan State 75-65 and (3) UNC 65-60
Things to look for:
Homecourt advantage- I thought UConn was the #1 seed in the bracket?? I am not accusing the NCAA selection committee of looking past teams but I don't think many people saw George Mason beating perennial powerhouses Mich. St and UNC. Like a surreal dream George Mason is pretty much playing in their backyard for the round of 16.
Mid-Major Madness- In previous years any mid-major team that made it to the round of 16 would have the unlucky fate of playing one of the big boys from one of the nation's premiere conferences. However because of the rising parity in college basketball two mid major teams have finally made it to the second weekend for a chance to play in the elite 8.
Line: George Mason -2
George Mason ATS - 17-9-2 (2-0 NCAA tournament)
Wichita State ATS - 15-13-1 (2-0 NCAA tournament)
Pick - George Mason
I will be honest and tell you I really do not know too much about both of these mid major teams. That said, I believe with George Mason playing at home basically and the fact that they beat Wichita St. @ the Shockers arena earlier in the year justifys the pick. Wichita St. deserves credit for the games they won, although Seton Hall was probably the Big East's weakest selection and Bruce Pearl's kids started to look fatigued because of the high tempo game they play. George Mason took a much tougher path beating Final Four regulars Michigan St. and the defending National Champs in North Carolina.
(1) UConn vs. (5) Washington
How they got here
UConn: wins vs. (16) Albany 72-59 and (8) Kentucky 87-83
Washington: wins vs. (12) Utah State 75-61 and (4) Illinois 67-64
Things to look for:
Marcus Williams - the PG from UConn has never seen the spotlight because of star players Rudy Gay, Josh Boone and Hilton Armstrong and while many people see him as maybe one of the best distributors in the college game today it has become apparent that Williams is the Huskies man during crunch time. His numbers the past two games cannot be more clear (21 pts 8 asts and 20 pts 8 asts) more importantly is his ability to drive the ball at the basket to create for himself or teammates when it matters most.
Rebounding- Although Washington led the Pac-10 in rebounding margin this season the same cannot be said of their work on the glass so far during the tournament. Both games so far they have been out rebounded, the effort was clearing lacking against Utah State as they got pounded on the boards 32-19. They will have to work their hardest against UConn's tall and athletic frontline. They will have to be careful how aggresive they are going for offensive glass because UConn is very good at scoring in transition.
Scoring - Brandon Roy maybe one of the most unappreciated players in the nation has been the main scoring source for the Huskies for the regular season and also during their 2 games in the tournament. Besides Roy none of the Huskies has really stepped up with their output in the first two rounds. Freshman G Justin Dentmon is the only other Washington player to hit double figures in both NCAA games, one of the other Washington starters will have assert himself more at the offensive end in order to give Washington a chance.
Line: UConn -6.5
UConn ATS- 14-13-0 (0-2 NCAA tournament)
Washington ATS- 15-15-0 (2-0 NCAA tournament)
Pick - UCONN
Jim Calhoun recently said that UConn has its "swagger" back, that can only mean bad things for the rest of the field. Although Washington has covered in both of their previous games, their lack of complementary scorer to Brandon Roy really hurts them. Whereas UConn can realistically get double digit outputs from 6-7 different players. Washington will not be able to play inside with UConn's forwards, UConn has yet to play a dominate game in the tournament and this is a perfect matchup for them to make a statement.
(7) Wichita State vs. (11) George Mason
How they got here:
Wichita State: wins vs. (10) Seton Hall 86-66 and (2) Tennessee 80-73
George Mason: wins vs. (6) Michigan State 75-65 and (3) UNC 65-60
Things to look for:
Homecourt advantage- I thought UConn was the #1 seed in the bracket?? I am not accusing the NCAA selection committee of looking past teams but I don't think many people saw George Mason beating perennial powerhouses Mich. St and UNC. Like a surreal dream George Mason is pretty much playing in their backyard for the round of 16.
Mid-Major Madness- In previous years any mid-major team that made it to the round of 16 would have the unlucky fate of playing one of the big boys from one of the nation's premiere conferences. However because of the rising parity in college basketball two mid major teams have finally made it to the second weekend for a chance to play in the elite 8.
Line: George Mason -2
George Mason ATS - 17-9-2 (2-0 NCAA tournament)
Wichita State ATS - 15-13-1 (2-0 NCAA tournament)
Pick - George Mason
I will be honest and tell you I really do not know too much about both of these mid major teams. That said, I believe with George Mason playing at home basically and the fact that they beat Wichita St. @ the Shockers arena earlier in the year justifys the pick. Wichita St. deserves credit for the games they won, although Seton Hall was probably the Big East's weakest selection and Bruce Pearl's kids started to look fatigued because of the high tempo game they play. George Mason took a much tougher path beating Final Four regulars Michigan St. and the defending National Champs in North Carolina.
Monday, March 20, 2006
Sweet Sixteen: Atlanta
Well because it's too late for me to make picks for games tonight I have decided to breakdown the Sweet Sixteen by region, looking at the possible contenders and identifying the pretenders for the national championship ( Sorry MVC, you are in the latter).
Atlanta: When looking at the Atlanta bracket it appears it will produce the best tandem of games compared to the other regions. 3 of the teams in the region were mentioned at the beginning of the season as national title contenders: Duke, Texas and West Virginia. While all three of these teams can lie claim to title aspirations LSU cannot be brushed aside, their combination of Glen "Big Baby" Davis and freshman phenom Tyrus Thomas is as formidable as any in the country.
(1) Duke vs. (4) LSU
How they got here
Duke: wins vs (16) Southern 70-54 and (8) GW 74-61
LSU: wins vs (13) Iona 80-64 and (12) Texas A&M 58-57
Things to Look For:
LSU's forwards - Duke has to be concerned about LSU's BIG and talented front line, it will be interesting to see who has the assignment of covering Glen Davis at the beginning of the game, Coach K might want to keep freshman Josh McRoberts on the SEC player of the year so Shelden Williams doesn't get into foul trouble early on. Just as intriguing to see will be who draws the assignment of Tyrus Thomas, Redick is not athletic enough to cover him man to man and if Williams covers him Thomas can step outside and stroke the outside twine nullifying Williams shot blocking ability.
J.J. Redick- Redick hasn't exactly been "Mr. March" (unlike our friend A-Rod) and has been bearing the burden of scoring alot of the Dukies point during the regular season. Redick even went an unheard of 2-7 from the FT line Saturday against GW and although he went 50% from the field, it makes you wonder how much he has left in his tank for the stretch run.
Depth - Both teams don't have the luxury of having a deep bench, LSU goes 7 to 8 deep but they do have the best player coming off either bench, Tyrus Thomas. Coach K mainly sticks with a 7 man rotation he utilizes Demarcus Nelson as another guard and energy guy Lee Melchionni who can hit from outside when called upon.
Line: Duke -6
Duke ATS - 14-18-1 (1-1 NCAA tournament)
LSU ATS - 13-14-2 (1-1 NCAA tournament)
Pick- Duke
The backcourt of Greg Paulus and J.J. Redick will be too much for LSU to match. Duke has to cutdown on turnovers and the turnover prone LSU has done a good job of protecting the ball so far. Glen Davis will get his points inside but the outside shooting of Redick along with the expierience of Duke helps them take control of this game.
(2) Texas vs. (6) West Virginia
How they got here
Texas: wins vs (15)UPenn 60-52 and (10) N.C. State 75-54
West Virginia: wins vs (11) Southern Illinois 64-46 and (14) Northwestern State 67-54
Things to look for:
1-3-1 Zone- West Virginia plays a very unique style of zone, the 1-3-1, with this zone they always have a guard running the baseline looking for steals or to pressure outside shooters. Most teams in the tournament have a hard time adjusting to this defense because it's not used commonly. Texas does have a slight advantage because of a previous meeting earlier in the season where they won 76-75 at Austin.
What team will show up? - With Texas it is hard to predict what you are going to get on any given night, they have the NBA talent (Aldridge, Tucker and Gibson) it's just a question of whether or not they will show up and play. Early season losses to Duke and the already discarded Tennessee raised some eyebrows but Texas righted its ship and after their 75-54 trashing of N.C. State, it finally looks like Texas may be living up to expectations.
Free Throws- West Virginia who shoots around 75% from the line shot an unusual 8-12 (67%) at Texas during their meeting in November. The usually reliable Kevin Pittsnogle (86%) and Johannes Herber (80%) both missed front ends of 1 and 1's that could have prevented Lamarcus Aldridge's last second tip-in for the win.
Line: Texas -5
Texas ATS - 14-15-1 (1-1 NCAA tournament)
West Virginia - 14-14-2 (2-0 NCAA tournament)
Pick- West Virginia
Texas is so inconsistent that it is baffling how they get down in games and can go so long without scoring. They also lack a true PG which will hurt them against the 1-3-1 zone. While West Virginia does not have the athletes to match up with Texas their cutting offense will give Texas problems. The outside shooting from Gansey, Pittsnogle, Beilein and company will make the difference in the end.
Atlanta: When looking at the Atlanta bracket it appears it will produce the best tandem of games compared to the other regions. 3 of the teams in the region were mentioned at the beginning of the season as national title contenders: Duke, Texas and West Virginia. While all three of these teams can lie claim to title aspirations LSU cannot be brushed aside, their combination of Glen "Big Baby" Davis and freshman phenom Tyrus Thomas is as formidable as any in the country.
(1) Duke vs. (4) LSU
How they got here
Duke: wins vs (16) Southern 70-54 and (8) GW 74-61
LSU: wins vs (13) Iona 80-64 and (12) Texas A&M 58-57
Things to Look For:
LSU's forwards - Duke has to be concerned about LSU's BIG and talented front line, it will be interesting to see who has the assignment of covering Glen Davis at the beginning of the game, Coach K might want to keep freshman Josh McRoberts on the SEC player of the year so Shelden Williams doesn't get into foul trouble early on. Just as intriguing to see will be who draws the assignment of Tyrus Thomas, Redick is not athletic enough to cover him man to man and if Williams covers him Thomas can step outside and stroke the outside twine nullifying Williams shot blocking ability.
J.J. Redick- Redick hasn't exactly been "Mr. March" (unlike our friend A-Rod) and has been bearing the burden of scoring alot of the Dukies point during the regular season. Redick even went an unheard of 2-7 from the FT line Saturday against GW and although he went 50% from the field, it makes you wonder how much he has left in his tank for the stretch run.
Depth - Both teams don't have the luxury of having a deep bench, LSU goes 7 to 8 deep but they do have the best player coming off either bench, Tyrus Thomas. Coach K mainly sticks with a 7 man rotation he utilizes Demarcus Nelson as another guard and energy guy Lee Melchionni who can hit from outside when called upon.
Line: Duke -6
Duke ATS - 14-18-1 (1-1 NCAA tournament)
LSU ATS - 13-14-2 (1-1 NCAA tournament)
Pick- Duke
The backcourt of Greg Paulus and J.J. Redick will be too much for LSU to match. Duke has to cutdown on turnovers and the turnover prone LSU has done a good job of protecting the ball so far. Glen Davis will get his points inside but the outside shooting of Redick along with the expierience of Duke helps them take control of this game.
(2) Texas vs. (6) West Virginia
How they got here
Texas: wins vs (15)UPenn 60-52 and (10) N.C. State 75-54
West Virginia: wins vs (11) Southern Illinois 64-46 and (14) Northwestern State 67-54
Things to look for:
1-3-1 Zone- West Virginia plays a very unique style of zone, the 1-3-1, with this zone they always have a guard running the baseline looking for steals or to pressure outside shooters. Most teams in the tournament have a hard time adjusting to this defense because it's not used commonly. Texas does have a slight advantage because of a previous meeting earlier in the season where they won 76-75 at Austin.
What team will show up? - With Texas it is hard to predict what you are going to get on any given night, they have the NBA talent (Aldridge, Tucker and Gibson) it's just a question of whether or not they will show up and play. Early season losses to Duke and the already discarded Tennessee raised some eyebrows but Texas righted its ship and after their 75-54 trashing of N.C. State, it finally looks like Texas may be living up to expectations.
Free Throws- West Virginia who shoots around 75% from the line shot an unusual 8-12 (67%) at Texas during their meeting in November. The usually reliable Kevin Pittsnogle (86%) and Johannes Herber (80%) both missed front ends of 1 and 1's that could have prevented Lamarcus Aldridge's last second tip-in for the win.
Line: Texas -5
Texas ATS - 14-15-1 (1-1 NCAA tournament)
West Virginia - 14-14-2 (2-0 NCAA tournament)
Pick- West Virginia
Texas is so inconsistent that it is baffling how they get down in games and can go so long without scoring. They also lack a true PG which will hurt them against the 1-3-1 zone. While West Virginia does not have the athletes to match up with Texas their cutting offense will give Texas problems. The outside shooting from Gansey, Pittsnogle, Beilein and company will make the difference in the end.
Welcome!
hi, my name is Drew I am a 21 year old male from Monroeville, PA and I am currently a student at the University of Pittsburgh studying Finance and Accounting. However my main passion is not school (how surprising!) and like many males it revolves around sports. Being so close to a great sports town in Pittsburgh has enabled me to witness 3 quality professional sports teams, championships for two of them (Penguins and Steelers) and the re-emergence of the Pittsburgh Panthers basketball and football programs. My interests do not just stop with Pittsburgh sports team, I am an avid fan of pretty much all sports.
With this website I hope to use and apply my knowledge and analysis of sports, by providing daily picks, I hope to be pretty consistent by providing about 3 a day (baseball might be a bit rocky, i've never handicapped it. I will also not touch hockey.) Usually basketball and football but sometimes I might venture out to make more picks. With the picks I will use writeups to justify their merit, not only will I include my own opinion but also links might be used to help support my evidence, also stats will help support and shape my opinion. I will also keep write occasional opinion pieces on subjects that I find worthy to read about.
My personal interests include shoe collecting, playing basketball, playing guitar, listening to music
Email me if you want at ddrombo@gmail.com
Instant message me at ddrombo
With this website I hope to use and apply my knowledge and analysis of sports, by providing daily picks, I hope to be pretty consistent by providing about 3 a day (baseball might be a bit rocky, i've never handicapped it. I will also not touch hockey.) Usually basketball and football but sometimes I might venture out to make more picks. With the picks I will use writeups to justify their merit, not only will I include my own opinion but also links might be used to help support my evidence, also stats will help support and shape my opinion. I will also keep write occasional opinion pieces on subjects that I find worthy to read about.
My personal interests include shoe collecting, playing basketball, playing guitar, listening to music
Email me if you want at ddrombo@gmail.com
Instant message me at ddrombo
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