NCAA Tournament: Championship night

Last night: 0-1
Overall: 8-11 (7-10 ATS)(1-1 O/U)


I've been in a bit of a slump lately, tonight however, will change that as my predictions for the NCAA championship game will be on point.


Florida (20-11-1 ATS, 12-20-0 O/U) vs. UCLA (22-12-0 ATS, 12-22-0 O/U)
Line: Florida -1
O/U:128.5

Under, Under, UNDER

Under is 8-2-0 in UCLA's last 10 neutral site games, while at the same time Florida has been under (5-0) in their 5 tournament games so far. Florida does like to run alot but UCLA has the athletes (as seen by the LSU and Memphis games) to make them play more of a halfcourt game. The big difference between a team like Memphis and Florida is that Florida is a lot better (in my opinion) at running their half court sets and getting a good shot. This game should be alot similiar in score to the Florida- Georgetown game (UCLA basically is a West Coast Big East team).

Pick: UNDER 128.5

Who to pick???

I've been mulling this game all day long and still haven't come up with a concrete pick, so I'll sort out my thoughts here and finally make a pick. In their tournament games not only has Florida hit the under everytime but they have also covered every time. (Stupid me for not riding them) UCLA conversely has only gone 3-2 ATS in the same game span. However, UCLA has performed admirably as dogs this year going 7-2 ATS when they are in that position and they are 6-1 ATS when the spread is 3 or less. They both played LSU late in the year with both producing convincing victories at a neutral site, although it is worth noting that Florida played LSU sans Tyrus Thomas (vs. UCLA 5 pts, 6 rebs, 3 blks). Defensive FG% is always an important thing to look at and to my surprise Florida actually boasts a better defensive FG% ( 40%, 23rd nationally) than UCLA (41.4%, 66th nationally). Florida is also better at guarding the 3 pt line which could become an issue for both teams considering the 3 pt shooters that will be on the floor for both teams (Farmar, Affalo, Humphrey, Green and Corey Brewer). Even though UCLA has played some of the best defense I've seen a long time from a college team I believe Florida has some advantages that LSU and Memphis did not have against UCLA. First, like mentioned before, Florida does like to run but they have two big men who can handle the ball in Noah and Horford and they run better half court sets than does Memphis. Secondly, Florida is not doomed like LSU if they can not establish their big men early. They have 3 players who can step out and consistently hit big shots unlike LSU who only had one primary 3 point shooter. We have seen in past years that 3 point shooters who get hot can make a huge difference in a title game (anyone remember Gerry McNamara when 'Cuse won their national title a few years ago??). With that said my pick is

PICK: FLORIDA -1