Thursday Night NFL

YTD:2-1 (.667)
ATS:2-0
Moneyline:0-1
Money:+310

Well, it is finally upon us, after thousands of preseason predictions,hundreds of camp confidential articles and one federal indictment the NFL regular season is going to begin. Like many red blooded males around the country (albeit a small eyed black haired one) I can not wait until 8:30 PM tonight. Good thing the NFL is all about money and exposure because we have a good one tonight.

Both the Colts and the Saints come into the season as Super Bowl contenders, however I believe that the Saints have the easier road. Looking at both teams there are some issues surrounding them and these issues will be points of emphasis for tonight's matchup

The Colts

Positives:

1. Peyton Manning is still their quarterback. Whatever has been said about Manning before, you can throw out the window, he dis spelled all his critics last year and got the monkey off his back known as New England

2. Joseph Addai. Addai came in as a rookie last season to be a complement to Dominic Rhodes, it became very apparent as the season wore on that Addai was Indy's best back. Addai is a good tough nosed runner and has excelled at the stretch play the Colt's run so often. Addai also has good hands and can be a serviceable receiving option of the backfield when called upon.

Negatives:

1. Defense. Say what you want about Bob Sanders (he's a ball of energy, a good tackler and the leader of the secondary) but he can't make every tackle for the Colts tonight. It was no secret last year that the Colts run defense was abhorrent. This season they don't look to get much better, especially with the injury of run stopping stalwart Booger McFarland.

2. Depth. I worry about the depth the Colts have, Addai currently is the only back on their roster that has any experience. Which poses the question, what about third down? Also because the injury to McFarland they are thin up front at DT.

The Saints

Positives:

1. Offense. You would be hard pressed to find an offensive as explosive as the Colts, well the Saints might be one of the few teams in the land to boast the offensive personnel that could trump the Colts. Sean Payton has shown to be a master at exploiting matchups and Reggie Bush is only going to get better in year 2.

2. Hunger. Unlike the Colts, the Saints suffered a heartbreaking loss in the NFC championship game. I believe Payton is a good motivator and will have his team ready.

Negatives:

1. Secondary. Much like last season the Saints secondary isn't its strongest unit on the field. They did make some additions to that unit in Jason David (CB) and Kevin Kaesviharn (S). The Saints still have some mismatches when it comes to CB- WR coverage and while Kaesviharn is a decent player, he's not a safety that you would expect to anchor a secondary.

2. Expectations. The Saints were just happy to be playing football last season after Katrina and ended up being "America's team" (Sorry Cowboys). They came into the season with low expectations and ended up surprising every one with their run to the NFC title game. This season the script has been flipped and New Orleans is one of the few teams in the NFC making a Super Bowl run. How they handle the expectations of being favorites can contribute to their play on the field or their preparation off the field.

The Lines opened at NO + 6.5 and O/U at 52

I feel pretty comfortable with the spread and I believe that New Orleans can win straight up (ML +220). Looking at the O/U, I am a little hesistant. It is the first game of the season and offenses usually do take a bit of time to get into sync, also I believe the best way for the Saints to win on the road would be to give the Colts D a steady helping of McAllister on the inside and Bush on the outside or with screens. This not only takes away the crowd and eats up the clock but it also forces Indy to bring 8 into the box if NO establishes the run well enough. If Sanders is forced into the box then Indy has some problems.

My Pick: 2 team teaser
NO +12.5
O/U 46 (over)

150.00/137.00


*EDIT*

10 pt teaser
NO +16
Oregon State +7
Louisville -31

200.00/167.00