NBA: Tuesday March 28

Because of the plethora of NCAA action in the past 4 days or so, I haven't had a chance to look over any NBA action. Tonight they're are a slew of good games to look at, including a potential Finals matchup between Dallas and Detroit at Auburn Hills.

Record YTD: 5-7 (ATS)

Tonight's Picks:
Dallas (54-16) (34-34-2 ATS) vs. Detroit (55-14)(32-35-2 ATS)
Line: Detroit -5.5
O/U: 179.5

It will be interesting to see how Flip Saunders plays his starters the rest of the season. His bench is very thin and although his starting 5 have been together so long, one starts to wonder how much fatigue is playing a part in their play lately.

Last 5:
Detroit (1-3-1 ATS)
Dallas (3-2 ATS)

Dallas isn't the team of old that people remember, with Avery Johnson at the helm they now play good team defense and even Dirk Nowitzki is becoming a solid one on one defender. Their defensive effort cannot only be seen on the court but also seen in defensive stats.

I'm not really a big fan of points against in a game because it really isn't too indicative of how a team is playing defense. Teams like Dallas may let up more points because of the tempo and the pace of the game.

For instance, Detroit the last 5 games has only let up 82.2 points a game compared to Dallas 94.2. However, that number doesn't really reflect how well Dallas's defense is actually playing. Detroit usually takes long possessions and trys to get the best shot out of each possession. While Dallas may run out in transition more or get quick shots with Nowitzki or Terry. When looking at opponents FG%, Dallas is actually beating Detroit 42.6 % to 43.1%. Whereas Detroit may limit possessions on the offensive end therefore doing it on the defensive end, Dallas is actually more active in their defense.

Although one may see that the points against number is distorted, it is also helpful to look at their margins in points scored vs. points against. Overall for the season Detroit has an average margin of 10.5 pts compared to Dallas's 3.2 pts. However as the season has worn on, one can see that Dallas' youth and deeper bench may play a bigger part in their defensive efforts. Over the last 5 games Detroit's margin has shrunk to 3.8 pts while Dallas has increased theirs to 5.8 pts.

Dallas has stepped up defensive pressure as the season has gone on while Detroit is starting to look more and more like a vulnerable team.

Pick: Dallas +5.5

Phoenix (47-22)(37-31-1 ATS) vs. Milwaukee (35-35)(34-35-1 ATS)
Line: Milwaukee +6
O/U: 215.5

Phoenix's record has been 1-4 on the road the past 5 games including a 72-110 beatdown by the New Jersey Nets. They have also seen a considerable drop in their FG% during the last 5 games, this drop in FG% can be attributed to the Suns integration of Amare Stoudemire and Tim Thomas into the offense. However, Stoudemire should not be in the lineup tonight and Nash barely played half the game last night because of the blowout.

For the season PHX is averaging about 108 points while Mil is averaging about 97. Both teams also have let up a high percentage of shots also, PHX has been horrendous over the past 5 games letting up 48.3% of their opponents FG's including an absolute horrible 44.4% from the 3 pt line.

The over has hit in 4 of the last 5 meetings while Phx has covered 3 of those times. Including a recent meeting in PHX (PHX 123- Mil 110, PHX -9.5/211) on the first of March.

Steve Nash will be back to MVP form tonight as PHX will exact revenge on the Bucks after their humiliating loss to NJ.

Pick: Over 215.5